Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows PDF

Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-08-01

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1451852959

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This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the particular measures representing exchange rate uncertainty. Particular attention is reserved for problems of simultaneous causality. The negative correlation between trade and bilateral volatility remains significant after controlling for the simultaneity bias. However, a Hausman test rejects the hypothesis of the absence of simultaneous causality.

A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows

A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows PDF

Author: Mr. Peter B. Clark

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-09-30

Total Pages: 72

ISBN-13: 1452733872

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The effect of exchange rate volatility on trade flows was examined by a 1984 IMF study on G-7 countries. Over the past two decades, many developments in the world economy, such as the currency crises in the 1990s and increasing cross-border capital flows, may have exacerbated exchange rate volatility, while others, such as a deepening of the market in foreign exchange hedging instruments, may have reduced the impact of volatility on trade flows. Using recent advances in the economic theories on trade and in statistical methodologies, this paper revisits this important issue by taking into account these new developments and examining their effects on developing and transition economies, as well as on developed countries.

Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade

Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1984-07-08

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13: 9781557750655

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In View of the continuation of substantial movements in exchange rate relationships among major currencies, the recent increase in protectionist pressures, and the disappointing performance of world trade, renewed concern has been expressed about the possible adverse effects of exchange rate variability on trade. Against the background of this concern, the following decision was reached at the ministerial meeting of the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in November 1982.

A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows

A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows PDF

Author: Peter Barton Clark

Publisher: Occasional Papers

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 63

ISBN-13: 9781589063587

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The effect of exchange rate volatility on trade flows was examined by a 1984 IMF study on G-7 countries. Over the past two decades, many developments in the world economy, such as the currency crises in the 1990s and increasing cross-border capital flows, may have exacerbated exchange rate volatility, while others, such as a deepening of the market in foreign exchange hedging instruments, may have reduced the impact of volatility on trade flows. Using recent advances in the economic theories on trade and in statistical methodologies, this paper revisits this important issue by taking into account these new developments and examining their effects on developing and transition economies, as well as on developed countries.

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies PDF

Author: Camila Casas

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-11-22

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13: 1484330609

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Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

Exchange Rates, Trade, and the U.S. Economy

Exchange Rates, Trade, and the U.S. Economy PDF

Author: John Tirman

Publisher:

Published: 1985

Total Pages: 328

ISBN-13:

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These essays review recent advances in exchange rate analysis and new empirical analysis of the behavior of exchange rates and their effects on international trade and the U.S. economy. The first section deals with the determination of exchange rates and their alleged volatility and disequilibrium levels. The second section concerns the effects of flexible exchange rates on international trade, and the third treats the macroeconomic linkages between economies and international influences on the U.S. economy. ISBN 0-88410-948-8 : $39.95.

IMF Staff papers

IMF Staff papers PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1988-01-01

Total Pages: 228

ISBN-13: 1451956770

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A central proposition regarding effects of different mechanisms of fi-nancing public expenditures is that, under specific circumstances, it makes no difference to the level of aggregate demand if the government finances its outlays by debt or taxation. This so-called Ricardian equivalence states that, for a given expenditure path, substitution of debt for taxes does not affect private sector wealth and consumption. This paper provides a model illustrating the implications of Ricardian equivalence, surveys the litera-ture, considers effects of relaxing the basic assumptions, provides a frame-work to study implications of various extensions, and critically reviews recent empirical work on Ricardian equivalence.

Exchange Rates, Prices and World Trade

Exchange Rates, Prices and World Trade PDF

Author: Meher Manzur

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2002-09-11

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13: 1134885121

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This book provides a systematic treatment of the interaction between national price levels and exchange rates, and the formation of expectation regarding exchange rates on trade flows. The thrust is empirical and the study is made up of five self-contained chapters with a common theme, viz., the behaviour of prices and quantities in international goods and financial markets. The major motivation is to distill the key issues addressed in the extremely large literature and present these issues in a succinct analytical manner.