Excess Volatility and the Asset-Pricing Exchange Rate Model with Unobservable Fundamentals

Excess Volatility and the Asset-Pricing Exchange Rate Model with Unobservable Fundamentals PDF

Author: Mr.Lorenzo Giorgianni

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-05-01

Total Pages: 21

ISBN-13: 1451849222

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This paper presents a method to test the volatility predictions of the textbook asset-pricing exchange rate model, which imposes minimal structure on the data and does not commit to a choice of exchange rate “fundamentals.” Our method builds on existing tests of excess volatility in asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable fundamentals from survey-based exchange rate expectations. We apply our method to data for the three major exchange rates since 1984 and find broad evidence of excess exchange rate volatility with respect to the predictions of the canonical asset-pricing model in an efficient market.

Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals

Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals PDF

Author: Leonardo Bartolini

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13:

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We present tests of excess volatility of exchange rates that impose minimal structure on the data and do not commit to a choice of exchange rate fundamentals. Our method builds on existing volatility tests of asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable fundamentals from survey-based exchange rate expectations. We apply our method to data for the three major exchange rates since 1984 and find broad evidence of excess volatility with respect to the predictions of the canonical asset-pricing model of the exchange rate with rational expectations.

Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1999

Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1999 PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000-01-01

Total Pages: 144

ISBN-13: 9781557759801

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Research activity in the IMF emphasizes the links between the organization's policy and operational concerns. The main objectives of research is IMF staff understanding of policy and operational issues relevant to the institution, and to improve the analytical quality of the work prepared for management and the Executive Board and the advice provided to member countries. The scope of research in the IMF is defined by the purposes and functions of the institution. In order to foster innovation and ensure quality control, the IMF makes much of its research available outside the institution and encourages staff to interact with academia and other research organizations through conferences, seminars, and occasional joint research projects. The visiting scholar’s program has also enhanced the quality of research done in the IMF. This program brings in leading members of the economics profession from around the world to assist in the preparation of papers for the Executive Board and to conduct research on IMF-related issues.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 PDF

Author: Daron Acemoglu

Publisher:

Published: 2008-03

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780226002026

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The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 address exchange-rate models; implications of credit market frictions; cyclical budgetary policy and economic growth; the impacts of shocks to government spending on consumption, real wages, and employment; dynamic macroeconomic models; and the role of cyclical entry of new firms and products on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations and on the effects of monetary policy.

Exchange-Rate Dynamics

Exchange-Rate Dynamics PDF

Author: Martin D. D. Evans

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2011-03-14

Total Pages: 561

ISBN-13: 1400838843

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A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas

Risk in International Finance

Risk in International Finance PDF

Author: Vikash Yadav

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2008-03-19

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 1135973717

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This book analyzes the evolution and impact of the concept of risk on processes of transnational banking and financial market regulation, as well as the externalities generated by speculative financial activity in developing and emerging market economies. The author provides an alternative theory for the study of international financial market regu

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy PDF

Author: John H. Cochrane

Publisher: Now Publishers Inc

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 117

ISBN-13: 1933019158

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Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries PDF

Author: Mr.Marco Airaudo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-03-08

Total Pages: 65

ISBN-13: 1475523165

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We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.