Evaluation of Numerical Storm Surge Models

Evaluation of Numerical Storm Surge Models PDF

Author: COMMITTEE ON TIDAL HYDRAULICS (ARMY) WASHINGTON DC.

Publisher:

Published: 1980

Total Pages: 87

ISBN-13:

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Federal services that minimize loss of life and property due to tropical hurricanes include forecasts and flood warnings. Because of the different concerns of these agencies their models have evolved in different ways and are applied with different input data, and apparent disparities have appeared. Evaluation was accomplished by having each modeling group separately exercise its models for selected past events and by comparing the model outputs with each other and with observed water elevations. Open-coast storm surge models were evaluated, then inland flooding models were evaluated using as input one of the open-coast model results. Each model tested included features that offered important advantages. Further, the models were continually evolving to include improved descriptions of the land and waters and of storms. No one model's predictions consistently gave better comparisons with observed data, however; and it is unlikely that one will be clearly better than the others for Corps purposes.

Storm Surge Analysis Using Numerical and Statistical Techniques and Comparison with NWS Model SLOSH

Storm Surge Analysis Using Numerical and Statistical Techniques and Comparison with NWS Model SLOSH PDF

Author: Manish Aggarwal

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This thesis presents a technique for storm surge forecasting. Storm surge is the water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level by almost 20 feet. Numerical modeling is an important tool used for storm surge forecast. Numerical model ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation model; Luettich et al, 1992) is used in this thesis for simulating hurricanes. A statistical technique, EST (Empirical Statistical Technique) is used to generate life cycle storm surge values from the simulated hurricanes. These two models have been applied to Freeport, TX. The thesis also compares the results with the model SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), which is currently used for evacuation and planning. The present approach of classifying hurricanes according to their maximum sustained winds is analyzed. This approach is not found to applicable in all the cases and more research needs to be done. An alternate approach is suggested for hurricane storm surge estimation.

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