Epidemic Modelling
Author: D. J. Daley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 1999-04-13
Total Pages: 160
ISBN-13: 9780521640794
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This is a general introduction to the mathematical modelling of diseases.
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Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference
Author: Tom Britton
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2019-11-30
Total Pages: 474
ISBN-13: 3030309002
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5–16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.
Epidemics
Author: Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2018-10-30
Total Pages: 312
ISBN-13: 3319974874
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This book is designed to be a practical study in infectious disease dynamics. The book offers an easy to follow implementation and analysis of mathematical epidemiology. The book focuses on recent case studies in order to explore various conceptual, mathematical, and statistical issues. The dynamics of infectious diseases shows a wide diversity of pattern. Some have locally persistent chains-of-transmission, others persist spatially in ‘consumer-resource metapopulations’. Some infections are prevalent among the young, some among the old and some are age-invariant. Temporally, some diseases have little variation in prevalence, some have predictable seasonal shifts and others exhibit violent epidemics that may be regular or irregular in their timing. Models and ‘models-with-data’ have proved invaluable for understanding and predicting this diversity, and thence help improve intervention and control. Using mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics has a very rich history in epidemiology. The field has seen broad expansions of theories as well as a surge in real-life application of mathematics to dynamics and control of infectious disease. The chapters of Epidemics: Models and Data using R have been organized in a reasonably logical way: Chapters 1-10 is a mix and match of models, data and statistics pertaining to local disease dynamics; Chapters 11-13 pertains to spatial and spatiotemporal dynamics; Chapter 14 highlights similarities between the dynamics of infectious disease and parasitoid-host dynamics; Finally, Chapters 15 and 16 overview additional statistical methodology useful in studies of infectious disease dynamics. This book can be used as a guide for working with data, models and ‘models-and-data’ to understand epidemics and infectious disease dynamics in space and time.
Age Structured Epidemic Modeling
Author: Xue-Zhi Li
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2020-05-28
Total Pages: 386
ISBN-13: 3030424960
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This book introduces advanced mathematical methods and techniques for analysis and simulation of models in mathematical epidemiology. Chronological age and class-age play an important role in the description of infectious diseases and this text provides the tools for the analysis of this type of partial differential equation models. This book presents general theoretical tools as well as large number of specific examples to guide the reader to develop their own tools that they may then apply to study structured models in mathematical epidemiology. The book will be a valuable addition to the arsenal of all researchers interested in developing theory or studying specific models with age structure.
Interdisciplinary Public Health Reasoning and Epidemic Modelling: The Case of Black Death
Author: George Christakos
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2006-09-24
Total Pages: 332
ISBN-13: 3540281657
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This multidisciplinary reference takes the reader through all four major phases of interdisciplinary inquiry: adequate conceptualization, rigorous formulation, substantive interpretation, and innovative implementation. The text introduces a novel synthetic paradigm of public health reasoning and epidemic modelling, and implements it with a study of the infamous 14th century AD Black Death disaster that killed at least one-fourth of the European population.
Epidemic Modelling
Author: Daryl J. Daley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 1999
Total Pages: 230
ISBN-13: 9780521014670
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This is a general introduction to the mathematical techniques needed to understand epidemiology. It begins with an historical outline of some disease statistics, before describing simple deterministic and stochastic models.
Infectious Disease Modeling
Author: Xinzhi Liu
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2017-02-25
Total Pages: 271
ISBN-13: 3319532081
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This volume presents infectious diseases modeled mathematically, taking seasonality and changes in population behavior into account, using a switched and hybrid systems framework. The scope of coverage includes background on mathematical epidemiology, including classical formulations and results; a motivation for seasonal effects and changes in population behavior, an investigation into term-time forced epidemic models with switching parameters, and a detailed account of several different control strategies. The main goal is to study these models theoretically and to establish conditions under which eradication or persistence of the disease is guaranteed. In doing so, the long-term behavior of the models is determined through mathematical techniques from switched systems theory. Numerical simulations are also given to augment and illustrate the theoretical results and to help study the efficacy of the control schemes.
Charting the Next Pandemic
Author: Ana Pastore y Piontti
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2018-11-07
Total Pages: 221
ISBN-13: 331993290X
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This book provides an introduction to the computational and complex systems modeling of the global spreading of infectious diseases. The latest developments in the area of contagion processes modeling are discussed, and readers are exposed to real world examples of data-model integration impacting the decision-making process. Recent advances in computational science and the increasing availability of real-world data are making it possible to develop realistic scenarios and real-time forecasts of the global spreading of emerging health threats. The first part of the book guides the reader through sophisticated complex systems modeling techniques with a non-technical and visual approach, explaining and illustrating the construction of the modern framework used to project the spread of pandemics and epidemics. Models can be used to transform data to knowledge that is intuitively communicated by powerful infographics and for this reason, the second part of the book focuses on a set of charts that illustrate possible scenarios of future pandemics. The visual atlas contained allows the reader to identify commonalities and patterns in emerging health threats, as well as explore the wide range of models and data that can be used by policy makers to anticipate trends, evaluate risks and eventually manage future events. Charting the Next Pandemic puts the reader in the position to explore different pandemic scenarios and to understand the potential impact of available containment and prevention strategies. This book emphasizes the importance of a global perspective in the assessment of emerging health threats and captures the possible evolution of the next pandemic, while at the same time providing the intelligence needed to fight it. The text will appeal to a wide range of audiences with diverse technical backgrounds.
Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis
Author: Hakan Andersson
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2012-12-06
Total Pages: 140
ISBN-13: 1461211581
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →The present lecture notes describe stochastic epidemic models and methods for their statistical analysis. Our aim is to present ideas for such models, and methods for their analysis; along the way we make practical use of several probabilistic and statistical techniques. This will be done without focusing on any specific disease, and instead rigorously analyzing rather simple models. The reader of these lecture notes could thus have a two-fold purpose in mind: to learn about epidemic models and their statistical analysis, and/or to learn and apply techniques in probability and statistics. The lecture notes require an early graduate level knowledge of probability and They introduce several techniques which might be new to students, but our statistics. intention is to present these keeping the technical level at a minlmum. Techniques that are explained and applied in the lecture notes are, for example: coupling, diffusion approximation, random graphs, likelihood theory for counting processes, martingales, the EM-algorithm and MCMC methods. The aim is to introduce and apply these techniques, thus hopefully motivating their further theoretical treatment. A few sections, mainly in Chapter 5, assume some knowledge of weak convergence; we hope that readers not familiar with this theory can understand the these parts at a heuristic level. The text is divided into two distinct but related parts: modelling and estimation.
Microbial Threats to Health
Author: Institute of Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Published: 2003-08-25
Total Pages: 397
ISBN-13: 0309185548
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Infectious diseases are a global hazard that puts every nation and every person at risk. The recent SARS outbreak is a prime example. Knowing neither geographic nor political borders, often arriving silently and lethally, microbial pathogens constitute a grave threat to the health of humans. Indeed, a majority of countries recently identified the spread of infectious disease as the greatest global problem they confront. Throughout history, humans have struggled to control both the causes and consequences of infectious diseases and we will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. Following up on a high-profile 1992 report from the Institute of Medicine, Microbial Threats to Health examines the current state of knowledge and policy pertaining to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases from around the globe. It examines the spectrum of microbial threats, factors in disease emergence, and the ultimate capacity of the United States to meet the challenges posed by microbial threats to human health. From the impact of war or technology on disease emergence to the development of enhanced disease surveillance and vaccine strategies, Microbial Threats to Health contains valuable information for researchers, students, health care providers, policymakers, public health officials. and the interested public.
