Engineering Reliability and Risk Analysis for Water Resources Investments

Engineering Reliability and Risk Analysis for Water Resources Investments PDF

Author: Bruce R. Ellingwood

Publisher:

Published: 1995

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This report presents the results of a preliminary investigation of the feasibility of incorporating structural degradation into time-dependent reliability analysis of navigation infrastructure on inland and coastal waterways. An appraisal is presented of methodologies for engineering decision that might enable the owner/operator of a navigation facility to perform condition assessments, determine its economical remaining service life, and schedule routine maintenance and repair so as to minimize total operating costs without endangering public safety. The report is developed around the following specific research objectives: (1) Identify mathematical models to evaluate degradation in strength of navigation structures over time in terms of initial construction conditions, servicc load history, and aggressive environmental factors. (2) Develop a methodology to assess the probability that structural capacity has degraded below a specified level, taking into account initial conditions of the structure, service load history and structural aging, and deterioration. (3) Examine the role played by peridic inspection, nondestructive evaluation and maintenance in maintaining reliability and minimizing overall costs during a projected service period. This feasibility study is based on a review, synthesis and interpretation of existing procedures and data in the structural engineering, material science, and structural reliability literature. It provides a prospectus for subsequent research on reliabiity-based evaluation of navigation structures, some of which is initiating. (MM).

Risk/Benefit Analysis in Water Resources Planning and Management

Risk/Benefit Analysis in Water Resources Planning and Management PDF

Author: Yacov Haimes

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-06-29

Total Pages: 292

ISBN-13: 1489921680

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Ronald M. North President Universities Council on Water Resources People sense intuitively that the world in which we live is not free of risk. Every decision, every action, even the refusal to either act or decide involves some element of risk. Perhaps, because we accept relatively low levels of risk in our daily activi ties, we tend to minimize the existence of risk and thereby fail to include risk assessment in those decisions and actions which could be improved through a risk assessment process. However, our casual approach to risk assessment seems to stem largely from the diffi culties inherent in measuring risk rather than from any lack of cognizance of the existence of risk. This conclusion is evidenced by the many statements in official documents relating to planning and evaluation which suggest that risk assessments should be con ducted but do not provide the mechanism for such assessments nor do they encourage their consideration in the decision making process. This conference on Risk/Benefit Analysis in Water Resources Planning and Management is notable because it attempts to identify and evaluate the mechanisms available for risk assessment which might be useful in water resources planning and management efforts. These proceedings bring together the thoughts of professional per sons who have struggled with the problems of risk assessment and who have contributed to the refinement of both theoretical and pragmatic solutions for the improvement of risk assessment processes.

Engineering Reliability and Risk in Water Resources

Engineering Reliability and Risk in Water Resources PDF

Author: L. Duckstein

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 586

ISBN-13: 9400935773

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Hydraulic, hydrologic and water resources engineers have been concerned for a long time about failure phenomena. One of the major concerns is the definition of a failure event E, of its probability of occurrence PtE), and of the complementary notion of reliability. However, as the stochastic aspects of hydraulics and water resources engineering were developed, words such as "failure," "reliability," and "risk" took on different meanings for different specialists. For example, "risk" is defined in a Bayesian framework as the expected loss resulting from a precisely defined failure event, while according to the practice of stochastic hydraulics it is the probability of occurrence of a failure event. The need to standardize the various concepts and operational definitions generated numerous exciting discussions between the co-editors of this book during 1983-84 when L. Duckstein, under sponsorship of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (FRG), was working with E. Plate at the Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources of the University of Karlsruhe. After consulting with the Scientific Affairs Division of NATO, an organizing committee was formed. This comittee - J. Bernier (France), M. Benedini (Italy), S. Sorooshian (U. S. A. ), and co-directors L. Duckstein (U. S. A. ) and E. J. Plate (F. R. G. ) -- brought into being this NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI). Precisely stated, the purpose of this ASI was to present a tutorial overview of existing work in the broad area of reliability while also pointing out topics for further development.

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics PDF

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2014-03-18

Total Pages: 628

ISBN-13: 146651826X

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Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics is required reading for decision making under conditions of uncertainty. The author describes the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive e

Financial Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Debt

Financial Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Debt PDF

Author: C Vaughan Jones

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published: 1991-02-11

Total Pages: 185

ISBN-13: 0313368716

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The water and power industries, including the most capital-intensive producers of goods and services in our economy, are exposed to financial risks of staggering proportions. With projects that are routinely large and require long-term planning, and with demand and supply often highly volatile, costs regularly defy prediction. Still, there has been little explicit analysis of financial risk in the water and power industries. In this work, C. Vaughan Jones provides a comprehensive discussion of financial risk and risk analysis for these utilities. Writing in clear, straightforward language, he explores the application of risk analysis to construction projects, rate-setting and price effects, and customer characteristics. In developing a method for evaluating risk, Jones brings together material from business, engineering, economics, demography, probability theory, computer simulation, and policy studies. The materials are organized around risk factors affecting costs and revenues, and support a practical analysis with spreadsheet and simulation examples. Separate chapters present findings relating to the variability of construction costs, customer demand, and population growth. Together with qualitative information about risks, these chapters offer suggestions about quantitative representation of relevant patterns of variability of key risk sources. The techniques are integrated in simulation models dealing with contract risk, the evaluation of sinking funds and amortization schedules, and long-run capacity planning. The concluding chapters summarize major findings, consider issues of reliability and validation, and discuss the way in which this analysis can be applied to a variety of infrastructure investments. Finance and investment professionals and students in business and finance studies will find this work to be a useful reference tool. For public and academic libraries, it will represent a valuable addition to their collections.

Risk-based Decision Making in Water Resources VIII

Risk-based Decision Making in Water Resources VIII PDF

Author: Yacov Y. Haimes

Publisher:

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13:

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Comprises edited papers from the proceedings of the Eighth Engineering Foundation Conference held in Santa Barbara, California, on October 12-17, 1997. This work discusses legislative initiatives and risk assessment, climate change, El Ninako, maintenance and rehabilitation, reliability of physical infrastructure, and the risk of extreme events.

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