Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks

Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks PDF

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2001-06-27

Total Pages: 328

ISBN-13: 9780849310874

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics PDF

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2003-06-26

Total Pages: 597

ISBN-13: 0203497694

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

More than any other book available, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics introduces the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author leads readers from the fundamental concepts through the theory, applications, and data requirements, sources, and collection. He emphasizes the practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each. Case studies that incorporate the techniques discussed offer a practical perspective that helps readers clearly identify and solve problems encountered in practice. If you deal with decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, this book is required reading. The presentation includes more than 300 tables and figures, more than 100 examples, many case studies, and a wealth of end-of-chapter problems. Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk assessment, this book helps you relate underlying concepts to everyday applications and better prepares you to understand and use the methods of risk analysis.

Uncertainty and Intelligent Information Systems

Uncertainty and Intelligent Information Systems PDF

Author: Bernadette Bouchon

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 537

ISBN-13: 9812792341

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Intelligent systems are necessary to handle modern computer-based technologies managing information and knowledge. This book discusses the theories required to help provide solutions to difficult problems in the construction of intelligent systems. Particular attention is paid to situations in which the available information and data may be imprecise, uncertain, incomplete or of a linguistic nature. The main aspects of clustering, classification, summarization, decision making and systems modeling are also addressed. Topics covered in the book include fundamental issues in uncertainty, the rapidly emerging discipline of information aggregation, neural networks, Bayesian networks and other network methods, as well as logic-based systems.

Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach

Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach PDF

Author: Bilal Ayyub

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 1997-10-31

Total Pages: 414

ISBN-13: 9780792380306

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.

Computational Methods in Transport: Verification and Validation

Computational Methods in Transport: Verification and Validation PDF

Author: Frank Graziani

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2008-08-09

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 3540773622

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The focus of this book deals with a cross cutting issue affecting all transport disciplines, whether it be photon, neutron, charged particle or neutrino transport. That is, verification and validation. In this book, we learn what the astrophysicist, atmospheric scientist, mathematician or nuclear engineer do to assess the accuracy of their code. What convergence studies, what error analysis, what problems do each field use to ascertain the accuracy of their transport simulations.

Expert Judgment in Project Management

Expert Judgment in Project Management PDF

Author: Paul Szwed

Publisher: Project Management Institute

Published: 2016-04-01

Total Pages: 128

ISBN-13: 1628251468

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.

Assessing Nanoparticle Risks to Human Health

Assessing Nanoparticle Risks to Human Health PDF

Author: Gurumurthy Ramachandran

Publisher: William Andrew

Published: 2016-07-21

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 0323354084

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Assessing Nanoparticle Risks to Human Health provides a systematic overview of nanoparticle risks and considers the limitations of this paradigm in a context where extreme uncertainties prevail. As well as exploring conventional risk assessment methodology, the contributing authors investigate several alternate approaches. The adequacy of current frameworks for risk management and regulatory oversights, including corporate approaches in the US and EU, are explored, and suggestions are made as to how these frameworks can be modified to make them more efficient and effective.Presenting a coherent framework for analysis of the available information, this book presents the latest scientific understanding of the toxicity and health effects of nanoparticles, the technical issues relating to exposure assessment and management, and the ways in which the current risk paradigm can be used/modified to deal with the challenges of nanoparticle risks.All chapters of this new edition have been thoroughly updated to reflect the many changes in the field since the first edition. Additions and updates in the second edition of the book include: New exposure assessment strategies for nanomaterials including life cycle exposure assessment approaches and detailed information on nanoparticle exposure control and protection in the workplace. A state-of-the-art scientific update on the hazard and risk assessment of nanomaterials: discussion of key additional publications on the toxicology and biokinetics of nanomaterials; available data and methods to characterize the health hazard and risk of exposure to nanomaterials in the workplace; additional examples of the use of such data and methods to develop occupational safety and health guidance; and discussion of progress to date, ongoing efforts, and remaining challenges in nanomaterials hazard and risk characterization. New studies on the use of expert judgment in nanotechnology. Quantitative data from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s 4-phase study. A description and evaluation of new CB tools and new ISO technical specifications. A comprehensive update of the legal frameworks in the US and the EU. With the second edition of Assessing Nanoparticle Risks to Human Health Prof. Ramachandran provides researchers and practitioners producing or using nanoparticles, or those involved in nanomaterials risk assessments, technology, health science, policy, safety, environment and regulatory aspects an invaluable reference to adopt the right technologies and strategies and to comply to legal frameworks and regulations. For policy makers and advisory firms it provides the knowledge needed to advise on compliance with or development of new regulations on nanomaterials. Makes essential reading for risk assessment professionals, companies working with nanoparticles, nanotechnology research groups and regulators Explores the use of risk assessment methodologies in an occupational health setting, and their limitations Provides a framework for evidence-based decision making in a context with many uncertainties

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Second Edition

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Second Edition PDF

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2014-03-18

Total Pages: 642

ISBN-13: 1466518251

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics is required reading for decision making under conditions of uncertainty. The author describes the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author covers everything from basic theory and key computational algorithms to data needs, sources, and collection. He emphasizes practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each to help readers translate the discussed techniques into real-world solutions. This Second Edition: Introduces the topic of risk finance Incorporates homeland security applications throughout Offers additional material on predictive risk management Includes a wealth of new and updated end-of-chapter problems Delivers a complementary mix of theoretical background and risk methods Brings together engineering and economics on balanced terms to enable appropriate decision making Presents performance segregation and aggregation within a risk framework Contains contemporary case studies, such as protecting hurricane-prone regions and critical infrastructure Provides 320+ tables and figures, over 110 diverse examples, numerous end-of-book references, and a bibliography Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk management, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Second Edition relates underlying concepts to everyday applications, ensuring solid understanding and use of the methods of risk analysis.