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Economics of Pessimism and Optimism

Author: Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-11-13

Total Pages: 326

ISBN-13: 4431559035

This is the first book to investigate individual’s pessimistic and optimistic prospects for the future and their economic consequences based on sound mathematical foundations. The book focuses on fundamental uncertainty called Knightian uncertainty, where the probability distribution governing uncertainty is unknown, and it provides the reader with methods to formulate how pessimism and optimism act in an economy in a strict and unified way. After presenting decision-theoretic foundations for prudent behaviors under Knightian uncertainty, the book applies these ideas to economic models that include portfolio inertia, indeterminacy of equilibria in the Arrow-Debreu economy and in a stochastic overlapping-generations economy, learning, dynamic asset-pricing models, search, real options, and liquidity preferences. The book then proceeds to characterizations of pessimistic (ε-contaminated) and optimistic (ε-exuberant) behaviors under Knightian uncertainty and people’s inherent pessimism (surprise aversion) and optimism (surprise loving). Those characterizations are shown to be useful in understanding several observed behaviors in the global financial crisis and in its aftermath. The book is highly recommended not only to researchers who wish to understand the mechanism of how pessimism and optimism affect economic phenomena, but also to policy makers contemplating effective economic policies whose success delicately hinges upon people’s mindsets in the market. Kiyohiko Nishimura is Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and Professor Emeritus and Distinguished Project Research Fellow of the Center for Advanced Research in Finance at The University of Tokyo. Hiroyuki Ozaki is Professor of Economics at Keio University.

Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations

Author: Gabriel Di Bella

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-01-05

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1484336747

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Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.

Growth Makes You Happy

Author: Peter De Keyzer

Publisher: Lannoo Publishers

Published: 2014-07

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789401419840

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"Many economists feed today's pessimism with regard to the future. Peter De Keyzer is a welcome exception. Yes, there are problems, but this book shows that there are also solutions. There is reason for optimism." - Professor Paul De Grauwe, London School of Economics "The economy has to keep growing." So says top economist Peter De Keyzer. In his view, a free market and intelligent growth are necessary for our continued wealth and well-being. Better yet: economic growth is the only recipe for guaranteeing more freedom and more prosperity for all. Nevertheless, after nearly five years of crisis, one no longer seems to believe in economic progress. Growth Makes You Happy is a solidly argued plea in favour of more optimism, more risk, less collectivism, and more freedom.

The Optimism Bias

Author: Tali Sharot

Publisher: Vintage

Published: 2011-06-14

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 0307379833

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Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.

In Praise of Commercial Culture

Author: Tyler COWEN

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Published: 2009-06-30

Total Pages: 289

ISBN-13: 0674029933

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Does a market economy encourage or discourage music, literature, and the visual arts? Do economic forces of supply and demand help or harm the pursuit of creativity? This book seeks to redress the current intellectual and popular balance and to encourage a more favorable attitude toward the commercialization of culture that we associate with modernity. Economist Tyler Cowen argues that the capitalist market economy is a vital but underappreciated institutional framework for supporting a plurality of co-existing artistic visions, providing a steady stream of new and satisfying creations, supporting both high and low culture, helping consumers and artists refine their tastes, and paying homage to the past by capturing, reproducing, and disseminating it. Contemporary culture, Cowen argues, is flourishing in its various manifestations, including the visual arts, literature, music, architecture, and the cinema. Successful high culture usually comes out of a healthy and prosperous popular culture. Shakespeare and Mozart were highly popular in their own time. Beethoven's later, less accessible music was made possible in part by his early popularity. Today, consumer demand ensures that archival blues recordings, a wide array of past and current symphonies, and this week's Top 40 hit sit side by side in the music megastore. High and low culture indeed complement each other. Cowen's philosophy of cultural optimism stands in opposition to the many varieties of cultural pessimism found among conservatives, neo-conservatives, the Frankfurt School, and some versions of the political correctness and multiculturalist movements, as well as historical figures, including Rousseau and Plato. He shows that even when contemporary culture is thriving, it appears degenerate, as evidenced by the widespread acceptance of pessimism. He ends by considering the reasons why cultural pessimism has such a powerful hold on intellectuals and opinion-makers.

Progress and Pessimism

Author: Jeffrey Paul Von Arx

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Published: 1985

Total Pages: 268

ISBN-13: 9780674713758

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Faith in progress is a characteristic we often associate with the Victorian era. Victorian intellectuals and free-thinkers who believed in progress and wrote history from a progressive point of view--men such as Leslie Stephen, John Morley, W. E. H. Lecky, and James Anthony Froude--are usually thought to have done so because they were optimistic about their own times. Their optimism has been seen as the result of a successful Liberal campaign for political reform in the sixties and seventies, carried out in alliance with religious dissenters--a campaign that removed religion from the arena of public debate. Jeffrey Paul von Arx challenges this long-standing view of the Victorian intellectual aristocracy. He sees them as preoccupied with and even fearful of a religious resurgence throughout their careers, and demonstrates that their loss of confidence in contemporary liberalism began with their disillusionment over the effects of the Franchise Reform Act of 1867. He portrays their championing of the idea of progress as motivated not by optimism about the present, but by their desire to explain away and reverse if possible contemporary religious and political trends, such as the new mass politics in England and Ireland. This is the first book to explore how pessimism could be the psychological basis for the Victorians' progressive conception of history. Throughout, von Arx skillfully interweaves threads of religion, politics, and history, showing how ideas in one sphere cannot be understood without reference to the others.

The Last Mile in Ending Extreme Poverty

Author: Laurence Chandy

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2015-07-20

Total Pages: 425

ISBN-13: 0815726341

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Viewed from a global scale, steady progress has been made in reducing extreme poverty—defined by the $1.25-a-day poverty line—over the past three decades. This success has sparked renewed enthusiasm about the possibility of eradicating extreme poverty within a generation. However, progress is expected to become more difficult, and slower, over time. This book will examine three central changes that need to be overcome in traveling the last mile: breaking cycles of conflict, supporting inclusive growth, and managing shocks and risks. By uncovering new evidence and identifying new ideas and solutions for spurring peace, jobs, and resilience in poor countries, The Last Mile in Ending Extreme Poverty will outline an agenda to inform poverty reduction strategies for governments, donors, charities, and foundations around the world. Contents Part I: Peace: Breaking the Cycle of Conflict External finance for state and peace building, Marcus Manuel and Alistair McKechnie, Overseas Development Institute Reforming international cooperation to improve the sustainability of peace, Bruce Jones, Brookings and New York University Bridging state and local communities through livelihood improvements, Ryutaro Murotani, JICA, and Yoichi Mine, JICA-RI and Doshisha University Postconflict trajectories and the potential for poverty reduction, Gary Milante, SIPRI Part II: Jobs: Supporting Inclusive Growth Structural change and Africa's poverty puzzle, John Page, Brookings Public goods for private jobs: lessons from the Pacific, Shane Evans, Michael Carnahan and Alice Steele, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Government of Australia Strategies for inclusive development in agrarian Sub-Saharan countries, Akio Hosono, JICA-RI The role of agriculture in poverty reduction, John McArthur, Brookings, UN Foundation, and Fung Global Institute

When Did White Trash Become the New Normal?

Author: Charlotte Hays

Publisher: Regnery Publishing

Published: 2013-10-28

Total Pages: 226

ISBN-13: 1621571602

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Tattoos. Unwed pregnancy. Giving up on shaving…showering…and employment. These used to be signatures of a trashy individual. Now they’re the new norm. What happened to etiquette, hygiene, and self restraint? Charlotte Hays, Southern gentlewoman extraordinaire, takes a humorous look at the spread of white trash culture to all levels of American society.

The Rational Optimist

Author: Matt Ridley

Publisher: HarperCollins UK

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 450

ISBN-13: 0007378904

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Matt Ridley, acclaimed author of the classics Genome and Nature via Nurture, turns from investigating human nature to investigating human progress. In The Rational Optimist Ridley offers a counterblast to the prevailing pessimism of our age, and proves, however much we like to think to the contrary, that things are getting better.