-PDF Download- Economic And Fiscal Impacts Of Disasters In The Pacific EBOOK

Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Disasters in the Pacific

Author: Asian Development Bank

Publisher:

Published: 2018-04

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 9789292611187

Pacific island countries need to build their fiscal and economic resilience to climate change and natural disasters as these have lasting consequences on their livelihoods, economies, and fiscal balances. Climate change and natural disasters can have lasting consequences on livelihoods, economies, and fiscal balances-spanning immediate reconstruction costs and fiscal shocks to long-term halts in tourism and agriculture economies. Globally, the most exposed to these impacts are the Pacific island countries. The Asian Development Bank is working closely with its Pacific developing member countries to prepare for and respond to the effects of climate change and natural hazards. This publication examines the often-overlooked dimension of resilience planning-how to brace economies for shocks caused by climate change and hazard events. It analyzes the exposure and vulnerability of Pacific economies to disaster events and outlines key resources for building fiscal and economic resilience.

The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness

Author: Dongyeol Lee

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-05-10

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1484353285

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.

Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Small States of the Pacific

Author: Ezequiel Cabezon

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-06-19

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1513525794

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.

A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Author: Ryota Nakatani

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-09-06

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1513514881

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants. The question that arises is how should small developing countries formulate a fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when prone to various shocks? We study how natural disasters affect long-term debt dynamics and propose fiscal policy rules that could help insulate the economy from such unexpected shocks. We propose fiscal rules to address these shocks and uncertainties using the example of Papua New Guinea. Our study finds the advantages of expenditure rules, especially a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This paper contributes to the literature and policy dialogue by theoretically analyzing the impact of natural disasters on debt sustainability and proposing fiscal rules against natural disasters and climate changes. Our fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters and climate change. Our rules-based fiscal framework is crucial for sustainable and countercyclical macroeconomic policies to build resilience against devastating natural hazards.

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Author: Hidetaka Nishizawa

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-07-12

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1513507982

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spending pressures to address post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. This paper estimates the effects of severe natural disasters on fiscal revenues and expenditure in PICs. These are combined with information on the frequency of large disasters to calculate the rate of budgetary savings needed to build appropriate fiscal buffers. Fiscal buffers provide self-insurance against natural disaster shocks and facilitate quick disbursement for recovery and relief efforts, and protection of spending on essential services and infrastructure. The estimates can provide a benchmark for policymakers, and should be adjusted to take into account other sources of financing, as well as budget risks from less severe as well as more frequent disasters.

Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters

Author: Charlotte Benson

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 136

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Disaster prevention and mitigation are integral to development activities. In February 2000, the World Bank's Disaster Management Facility initiated a three-year study on the economic and financial consequences of natural disasters with the support of the U.K. Department for International Development.

Excerpt: Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific

Author: Hoe Ee Khor

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-04-07

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 1484319834

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This is a prepublication excerpt of Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific.

Understanding the economic and financial impacts of natural disasters

Author: Charlotte Benson

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 136

ISBN-13: 9780821356852

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Author: Debarati Guha-Sapir

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2013-05-23

Total Pages: 341

ISBN-13: 0199841934

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.

Investing in Resilience

Author: Asian Development Bank

Publisher: Asian Development Bank

Published: 2013-01-01

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 9290929502

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Investing in Resilience: Ensuring a Disaster-Resistant Future focuses on the steps required to ensure that investment in disaster resilience happens and that it occurs as an integral, systematic part of development. At-risk communities in Asia and the Pacific can apply a wide range of policy, capacity, and investment instruments and mechanisms to ensure that disaster risk is properly assessed, disaster risk is reduced, and residual risk is well managed. Yet, real progress in strengthening resilience has been slow to date and natural hazards continue to cause significant loss of life, damage, and disruption in the region, undermining inclusive, sustainable development. Investing in Resilience offers an approach and ideas for reflection on how to achieve disaster resilience. It does not prescribe specific courses of action but rather establishes a vision of a resilient future. It stresses the interconnectedness and complementarity of possible actions to achieve disaster resilience across a wide range of development policies, plans, legislation, sectors, and themes. The vision shows how resilience can be accomplished through the coordinated action of governments and their development partners in the private sector, civil society, and the international community. The vision encourages “investors” to identify and prioritize bundles of actions that collectively can realize that vision of resilience, breaking away from the current tendency to pursue disparate and fragmented disaster risk management measures that frequently trip and fall at unforeseen hurdles. Investing in Resilience aims to move the disaster risk reduction debate beyond rhetoric and to help channel commitments into investment, incentives, funding, and practical action