Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera

Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera PDF

Author: Andrea Bevilacqua

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-05-03

Total Pages: 234

ISBN-13: 8876425772

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This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

Flows of Non-Smooth Vector Fields and Degenerate Elliptic Equations

Flows of Non-Smooth Vector Fields and Degenerate Elliptic Equations PDF

Author: Maria Colombo

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-06-07

Total Pages: 250

ISBN-13: 8876426078

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The first part of the book is devoted to the transport equation for a given vector field, exploiting the lagrangian structure of solutions. It also treats the regularity of solutions of some degenerate elliptic equations, which appear in the eulerian counterpart of some transport models with congestion. The second part of the book deals with the lagrangian structure of solutions of the Vlasov-Poisson system, which describes the evolution of a system of particles under the self-induced gravitational/electrostatic field, and the existence of solutions of the semigeostrophic system, used in meteorology to describe the motion of large-scale oceanic/atmospheric flows.​

Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management

Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management PDF

Author: Nicolas R. Dalezios

Publisher: IWA Publishing

Published: 2017-02-15

Total Pages: 560

ISBN-13: 1780407122

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From the beginning of 21st century, there has been an awareness of risk in the environment along with a growing concern for the continuing potential damage caused by hazards. In order to ensure environmental sustainability, a better understanding of natural disasters and their impacts is essential. It has been recognized that a holistic and integrated approach to environmental hazards needs to be attempted using common methodologies, such as risk analysis, which involves risk management and risk assessment. Indeed, risk management means reducing the threats posed by known hazards, whereas at the same time accepting unmanageable risks and maximizing any related benefits. The risk management framework involves evaluating the importance of a risk, either quantitatively or qualitatively. Risk assessment comprises three steps, namely risk identification (data base, event monitoring, statistical inference), risk estimation (magnitude, frequency, economic costs) and risk evaluation (cost-benefit analysis). Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, risk governance, i.e. the need for a feedback of all the risk assessment undertakings. There is currently a lack of such feedback which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards. This book emphasises methodological approaches and procedures of the three main components in the study of environmental hazards, namely forecasting - nowcasting (before), monitoring (during) and assessment (after), based on geoinformatic technologies and data and simulation through examples and case studies. These are considered within the risk management framework and, in particular, within the three components of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This approach is a contemporary and innovative procedure and constitutes current research in the field of environmental hazards. Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management covers hydrological hazards (floods, droughts, storms, hail, desertification), biophysical hazards (frost, heat waves, epidemics, forest fires), geological hazards (landslides, snow avalanches), tectonic hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes), and technological hazards. This book provides a text and a resource on environmental hazards for senior undergraduate students, graduate students on all courses related to environmental hazards and risk assessment and management. It is a valuable handbook for researchers and professionals of environmental science, environmental economics and management, and engineering. Editor: Nicolas R. Dalezios, University of Thessaly, Greece

Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing

Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing PDF

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2017-07-24

Total Pages: 135

ISBN-13: 0309454158

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Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

Caldera Volcanism

Caldera Volcanism PDF

Author: Joachim Gottsmann

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2011-09-22

Total Pages: 517

ISBN-13: 0080558976

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This volume aims at providing answers to some puzzling questions concerning the formation and the behavior of collapse calderas by exploring our current understanding of these complex geological processes. Addressed are problems such as:- How do collapse calderas form? - What are the conditions to create fractures and slip along them to initiate caldera collapse and when are these conditions fulfilled? - How do these conditions relate to explosive volcanism?- Most products of large caldera-forming eruptions show evidence for pre-eruptive reheating. Is this a pre-requisite to produce large volume eruptions and large calderas?- What are the time-scales behind caldera processes? - How long does it take magma to reach conditions ripe enough to generate a caldera-forming eruption?- What is the mechanical behavior of magma chamber walls during caldera collapse? Elastic, viscoelastic, or rigid? - Do calderas form by underpressure following a certain level of magma withdrawal from a reservoir, or by magma chamber loading due to deep doming (underplating), or both?- How to interpret unrest signals in active caldera systems?- How can we use information from caldera monitoring to forecast volcanic phenomena?In the form of 14 contributions from various disciplines this book samples the state-of-the-art of caldera studies and identifies still unresolved key issues that need dedicated cross-boundary and multidisciplinary efforts in the years to come. International contributions from leading experts Updates and informs on all the latest developments Highlights hot topic areas and identifies and analyzes unresolved key issues

Volcanic Island: from Hazard Assessment to Risk Mitigation

Volcanic Island: from Hazard Assessment to Risk Mitigation PDF

Author: E. Marotta

Publisher: Geological Society of London

Published: 2024-01-02

Total Pages: 172

ISBN-13: 1786205653

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Co-published with IAVCEI This Special Publication is a contribution from The Cities and Volcanoes Commission of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior. The Commission’s role is to encourage the exchange of experiences on volcanic islands to identify best practice in hazard assessment, monitoring techniques and risk mitigation strategies. The volume contains nine papers from internationally recognized authors that present studies undertaken on Ischia Island and Stromboli in the Mediterranean Sea, Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean, and the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean. This volume will be of interest to all scientists working in the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk mitigation.

Statistics in Volcanology

Statistics in Volcanology PDF

Author: Heidy M. Mader

Publisher: Geological Society of London

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 304

ISBN-13: 9781862392083

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Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.

Campi Flegrei

Campi Flegrei PDF

Author: Giovanni Orsi

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2022-02-09

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9783642370595

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The densely populated Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera is one of the widest known, best studied and highly dangerous volcanoes of the world. This monograph synthesises the current knowledge of this volcano, through different review chapters. Each chapter of this book is dedicated to a specific volcanological aspect, authored by well-recognised experts. The volume attempts to cross the barriers between the volcanological, geological, geochemical and geophysical perspectives, and offers a comprehensive and up-to-date reference to earth-science scholars, as well as land planners and civil defence officers.

Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Campanian Volcanism

Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Campanian Volcanism PDF

Author: Benedetto De Vivo

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2019-10-11

Total Pages: 520

ISBN-13: 0128175184

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Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Campanian Volcanism communicates the state-of-the-art scientific knowledge on past and active volcanism in an area characterized by elevated risk due to high-density population. Eruptions, lahars and poisonous gas clouds have killed many thousands of people over recorded history, but volcanoes have given people some of the most fertile soil known in agriculture. The research presented in this book is useful for policymakers and researchers from these and other countries who are looking for risk assessment and volcanic evolution models they can apply to similar situations around the world. Naples and its surrounding area, in particular, the area situated between Vesuvius and the Campi Flegrei volcanic area has a population in excess of 4 million people. The volcanic areas that have similarly large populations in proximity to dormant, but hazardous volcanoes, i.e., Indonesia and Central America can also benefit from this work. Covers the fundamental science of volcanoes, including new developments in the last decade relating to the use of crystals and melt inclusions to model the nature and evolution of volatiles Includes the latest research on volcanism in Southern Italy that is presented as a case study for active and inactive volcanoes across the globe Presents research that is applicable around the world, for people, scientists and policymakers living on, or near, active volcanoes