Decision-making Under Ambiguity and Time Constraints
Author: Reimut Zohlnhöfer
Publisher:
Published: 2016
Total Pages: 280
ISBN-13: 9781785521690
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Decision-Making Under Ambiguity and Time Constraints
Author: Reimut Zohlnhofer
Publisher:
Published: 2016-02-24
Total Pages: 272
ISBN-13: 9781785522536
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This volume is the first attempt to fill that gap by bringing together a group of international scholars to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the Framework from different angles.
Individual Decision Making Under Ambiguity and Over Time
Author: Yuanyuan Liu
Publisher:
Published: 2015
Total Pages: 0
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This dissertation addresses the issue of how to make decisions involving both time delay and ambiguous information. This dissertation is arranged into three chapters. Chapter 1 reviews a set of studies on the influence of ambiguity and time delay on individual decision making and raises two relevant research questions: (1) Are decision makers' ambiguity preferences different for prospects resolved in the present and the future?; and (2) Do decision makers' time preferences differ under ambiguous and unambiguous payoffs? Chapter 2 and 3 are two independent essays, each addressing one of the above questions. The first essay examines ambiguity preferences under present and delayed resolutions across low and high probabilities. Results of three studies show an interaction effect between resolution time and probability level. Under the immediate resolution, we find that individuals exhibit ambiguity aversion at high probabilities and weak ambiguity seeking or indifference at low probabilities, consistent with prior literature. However, delayed resolution regresses aversion and seeking behaviors to neutrality. Drawing on the construal level theory and the dual-process theory, we attribute this interaction effect to the difference in processing styles for present and future prospects. The second essay demonstrates the impact of ambiguous future payoffs on intertemporal preferences. Six studies show that, despite the fact that ambiguous and delayed payoffs are generally disliked separately, together they produce a positive effect. That is, ambiguous future payoffs are more likely to be preferred than precise payoffs (with equal expected values) in intertemporal decision-making. We propose the overshadowing hypothesis to explain this effect and rule out three other possibilities. Finally, we establish boundary conditions by systematically examining whether the effect persists at various ambiguity levels and time points.
Theories Of The Policy Process
Author: Christopher M. Weible
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Published: 2023-06-12
Total Pages: 454
ISBN-13: 1000899799
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Theories of the Policy Process provides a forum for the experts in policy process research to present the basic propositions, empirical evidence, latest updates, and the promising future research opportunities of each policy process theory. In this thoroughly revised fifth edition, each chapter has been updated to reflect recent empirical work, innovative theorizing, and a world facing challenges of historic proportions with climate change, social and political inequities, and pandemics, among recent events. Updated and revised chapters include Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, Multiple Streams Framework, Policy Feedback Theory, Advocacy Coalition Framework, Narrative Policy Framework, Institutional and Analysis and Development Framework, and Diffusion and Innovation. This fifth edition includes an entirely new chapter on the Ecology of Games Framework. New authors have been added to most chapters to diversify perspectives and make this latest edition the most internationalized yet. Across the chapters, revisions have clarified concepts and theoretical arguments, expanded and extended the theories’ scope, summarized lessons learned and knowledge gained, and addressed the relevancy of policy process theories. Theories of the Policy Process has been, and remains, the quintessential gateway to the field of policy process research for students, scholars, and practitioners. It’s ideal for those enrolled in policy process courses at the undergraduate and graduate levels, and those conducting research or undertaking practice in the subject.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher: MIT Press
Published: 2015-07-24
Total Pages: 350
ISBN-13: 0262331713
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgment and Decision Making
Author: A.J. Maule
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2013-03-09
Total Pages: 364
ISBN-13: 147576846X
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Some years ago we, the editors of this volume, found out about each other's deeply rooted interest in the concept of time, the usage of time, and the effects of shortage of time on human thought and behavior. Since then we have fostered the idea of bringing together different perspectives in this area. We are now, there fore, very content that our idea has materialized in the present volume. There is both anecdotal and empirical evidence to suggest that time con straints may affect behavior. Managers and other professional decision makers frequently identify time pressure as a major constraint on their behavior (Isen berg, 1984). Chamberlain and Zika (1990) provide empirical support for this view, showing that complaints of insufficient time are the most frequently report ed everyday minor stressors or hassles for all groups of people except the elderly. Similarly, studies in occupational settings have identified time pressure as one of the central components of workload (Derrich, 1988; O'Donnel & Eggemeier, 1986).
Decision Making Under Ambiguity
Multiple Streams and Policy Ambiguity
Author: Rob A. DeLeo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2024-03-31
Total Pages: 152
ISBN-13: 1009397907
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This Element addresses the criticisms of the Multiple Stream Framework, the lack of empirical research, and the inconsistent operationalization of key concepts. It established a community of scholars. With Public Policy it develops a comprehensive guide for conducting MSF research.
An Introduction to the Policy Process
Author: Thomas A. Birkland
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-06-19
Total Pages: 396
ISBN-13: 1351023926
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Now in a thoroughly revised Fifth Edition, An Introduction to the Policy Process provides students at all levels with an accessible, readable, and affordable introduction to the field of public policy. In keeping with prior editions, author Tom Birkland conveys the best current thinking on the policy process in a clear, conversational style. Designed to address new developments in both policy theory and policy making, the Fifth Edition includes examinations of: the Brexit referendum result and its effects on the UK, European Union, and world politics, as well as the 2016 election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, and the ways in which these events have caused voters and policy makers to rethink their assumptions; changes to the media environment, including the decline of newspapers and television news, the growth of social media, and the emergence of "fake news"; new policy theory developments like the emergence of the Narrative Policy Framework and continued and newer applications of existing theories of policy process like Advocacy Coalitions, Multiple Streams, Punctuated Equilibrium, and Institutional Analysis and Development; and all-new and updated chapter "at a glance" outlines, definitions of key terms, provocative review questions, recommended reading, visual aids and case studies, theoretical literature, and preentation slides and Test Banks to make teaching from the book easier than ever. Firmly grounded in both social science and political science, An Introduction to the Policy Process provides the most up-to-date and thorough overview of the theory and practice of the policy process, ideal for upper-level undergraduate and introductory graduate courses in Public Policy, Public Administration, and Political Science programs.
The Institutions of Programmatic Action
Author: Johanna Hornung
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2022-10-07
Total Pages: 252
ISBN-13: 3031057740
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This open access book is the first monograph to systematically apply the Programmatic Action Framework (PAF) in a comparative analysis of public policy in two institutionally different countries. The PAF seeks to explain long-term policy change by examining the shared biographies of policy actors who, to foster their careers, coalesce around policy programs which they promote throughout the policy process. Comparing health policy-making in France and Germany between 1990 and 2020, the book sheds light on the institutional settings that are necessary for programmatic action to occur. It will appeal to scholars and students of public policy, public administration, and health policy.
