Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation

Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation PDF

Author: Nicoletta Batini

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-05-23

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 148436550X

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We revisit the empirical relationship between private/public debt and output, and build a model that reproduces it. In the model, the government provides financial assistance to credit-constrained agents to mitigate deleveraging. As we observe in the data, surges in private debt are potentially more damaging for the economy than surges in public debt. The model suggests two policy implications. First, capping leverage leads to milder recessions, but also implies more muted expansions. Second, with fiscal buffers, financial assistance to credit-constrained agents helps avoid stagnation. The growth returns from intervention decline as the government approaches the fiscal limit.

Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public PDF

Author: Samba Mbaye

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-13

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1484363825

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This paper documents a form of private sector bailout that is much more common (and yet unnoticed) than the typical bank bailout. Building on the newly-created Global Debt Database, we show that excess private debt systematically turns into higher public debt, regardless of whether the credit boom resulted in a crisis or a more orderly deleveraging process. This debt migration operates mainly through growth rather than explicit bailouts: private deleveraging weighs on activity, prompting a countercyclical government response to support economic activity. Ultimately, whether this debt substitution results in a net increase or a net decline of overall indebtedness in the economy depends on the extent of the growth slowdown during the deleveraging spell. These findings suggest that markets and policymakers should move away from looking at private and sovereign debt in silos and pay closer attention to the total stock of debt in the economy, as the line between the two tends to become blurry.

Structural Change in Banking

Structural Change in Banking PDF

Author: Michael Klausner

Publisher: Irwin Professional Publishing

Published: 1993

Total Pages: 380

ISBN-13:

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The thrift crisis and recent weakness in the banking sector has intensified attention toward regulatory reform. But most proposals take as a given the traditional structure of banking, under which a bank holds illiquid loans and liquid liabilities. Structural Change in Banking explores the possibility of more fundamental changes in bank structure, which would reduce the instability that is inherent in the current structure. The major essays in this book, written by leading authors in the field, examine the historical legacy of limitations on bank branching and their consequences on bank structure and stability; how securitization affects the bank structure, risk, and liquidity; the advantages to a bank from having checking account information about its loan customers; and the potential for money market funds and finance companies to become the banks of the future. Structural Change in Banking is an essential tool for bank regulators, legislators, executives, and anyone concerned with rectifying the instability of traditional banking structure. This book not only makes a strong argument for change, it provides an intelligent analysis of alternatives through which credit can be provided.

Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt PDF

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Public Debt as a Form of Public Finance

Public Debt as a Form of Public Finance PDF

Author: Richard E. Wagner

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2019-05-30

Total Pages: 129

ISBN-13: 1108758339

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Economists commit a category mistake when they treat democratic governments as indebted. Monarchs can be indebted, as can individuals. In contrast, democracies can't truly be indebted. They are financial intermediaries that form a bridge between what are often willing borrowers and forced lenders. The language of public debt is an ideological language that promotes politically expressed desires and is not a scientific language that clarifies the practice of public finance. Economists have gone astray by assuming that a government is just another person whose impulses toward prudent action will restrict recourse to public debt and induce rational political action.

The Liquidation of Government Debt

The Liquidation of Government Debt PDF

Author: Ms.Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-01-21

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1498338380

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High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.

Private and Public Debt

Private and Public Debt PDF

Author: Marco Bernardini

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-03-22

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1475588178

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Using a dataset covering a large sample of emerging economies (EMEs), we study the relationship between debt and economic performance in bad times. While previous research has shown that private debt buildups exacerbate the duration and intensity of recessions in advanced economies (AEs), we document that this effect is very pronounced in EMEs as well. Moreover, although rapid public debt buildups are unlikely to be the primary trigger of financial crises, in EMEs they are associated with deeper and longer recessions than in AEs. Part of this difference is explained by a less supportive fiscal policy in EMEs during crises.