dealing with commodity price uncertainty
Author: Panos Varangis
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Published: 1996
Total Pages: 52
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: Panos Varangis
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Published: 1996
Total Pages: 52
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Author: Panayotis N. Varangis
Publisher:
Published: 1999
Total Pages:
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →October 1996 Market liberalization has increased the appeal of commodity derivative instruments (such as futures, options, swaps, and commodity-linked notes) as a means of managing price uncertainty. In many emerging countries both government and the private sector are increasingly using these instruments. Liberalization in commodity markets has brought profound changes in the way price risks are allocated and managed in commodity subsectors. Price risks are increasingly allocated to private traders and farmers rather than absorbed by the government. The success of market reform depends on the ability of the emerging private sector to make full use of the available range of modern commodity marketing, price risk management (such as futures, options, swaps, commodity bonds, and so on), and financing instruments. Because farmers do not generally have direct access to these instruments, intermediaries must be developed. Larger private traders and banks are in the best position to become these intermediaries. Preconditions needed for accessing modern commodity marketing, price risk management, and financing instruments are: * Creating an appropriate legal, regulatory, and institutional framework. * Reducing government intervention that crowds out private sector involvement. * Providing training and raising awareness. * Improving creditworthiness and reducing performance risk. The use of commodity derivative instruments to hedge commodity price risk is not new among developing countries. The private sector in many Asian and Latin American countries, for example, have been using commodity futures and options for some time. More recently, commodity derivative instruments are being used increasingly in several African countries and many economies in transition. And several developing and transition economies have sought to establish commodity derivative exchanges. This paper - a product of the Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit, International Economics Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to investigate alternative price risk management and finance systems under market liberalization.
Author: Panos Varangis
Publisher:
Published: 2016
Total Pages: 52
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Market liberalization has increased the appeal of commodity derivative instruments (such as futures, options, swaps, and commodity-linked notes) as a means of managing price uncertainty. In many emerging countries both government and the private sector are increasingly using these instruments. Liberalization in commodity markets has brought profound changes in the way price risks are allocated and managed in commodity subsectors. Price risks are increasingly allocated to private traders and farmers rather than absorbed by the government.The success of market reform depends on the ability of the emerging private sector to make full use of the available range of modern commodity marketing, price risk management (such as futures, options, swaps, commodity bonds, and so on), and financing instruments. Because farmers do not generally have direct access to these instruments, intermediaries must be developed. Larger private traders and banks are in the best position to become these intermediaries.Preconditions needed for accessing modern commodity marketing, price risk management, and financing instruments are:Creating an appropriate legal, regulatory, and institutional framework.Reducing government intervention that crowds out private sector involvement.Providing training and raising awareness.Improving creditworthiness and reducing performance risk.The use of commodity derivative instruments to hedge commodity price risk is not new among developing countries. The private sector in many Asian and Latin American countries, for example, have been using commodity futures and options for some time. More recently, commodity derivative instruments are being used increasingly in several African countries and many economies in transition. And several developing and transition economies have sought to establish commodity derivative exchanges.This paper - a product of the Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit, International Economics Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to investigate alternative price risk management and finance systems under market liberalization.
Author: Jan Dehn
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Published: 2000
Total Pages: 66
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →The author estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks, and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex-post shocks, and ex-ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts, and it is both theoretically, and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous. He shows that the interaction between policy, and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject: 1) It deals with issues of endogeneity, without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency. 2) It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks. 3) It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock, and uncertainty specifications. The author resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income). He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.
Author: Jan Dehn
Publisher:
Published: 2016
Total Pages: 62
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Commodity export dependency confers ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty upon producing countries. What reduces growth is not the prospect of volatile world prices, but the actual realization of negative shocks.Dehn estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts and it is both theoretically and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous.He shows that the interaction between policy and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject:- It deals with issues of endogeneity without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency.- It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks.- It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock and uncertainty specifications.Dehn resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income).He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.This paper - a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the impact of commodity price risks on developing economies. The author may be contacted at [email protected].