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Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond

Author: Chih-Pei Chang

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2015-08-06

Total Pages: 388

ISBN-13: 9814579947

This book focuses on two major challenges in the climate sciences: 1) to describe the decadal-to-centennial variations in instrumental and proxy records; and 2) to distinguish between anthropogenic variations and natural variability. The National Taiwan University invited some of the world's leading experts across the areas of observational analysis, mathematical theory, and modeling to discuss these two issues. The outcome of the meeting is the 23 chapters in this book that review the state of the art in theoretical, observational and modeling research on internal, unforced and externally forced climate variability. The main conclusion of this research is that internal climate variability on decadal and longer time scales is so large that sidestepping it may lead to false estimates of the climate's sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. Contents:Attribution of Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Variability (John M Wallace, Clara Deser, Brian V Smoliak, and Adam S Phillips)A Mathematical Theory of Climate Sensitivity or, How to Deal With Both Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability? (Michael Ghil)Fluctuation-dissipation Theorem with Application to Climate Change Studies with Seasonal Impact (Xiaoming Wang)Parametrization of Cross-scale Interaction in Multiscale Systems (Jeroen Wouters and Valerio Lucarini)Dynamics of Nonlinear Error Growth and the "Spring Predictability Barrier" for El Niño Predictions (Wansuo Duan and Mu Mu)An Adaptive Approach for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Data Analysis (Norden E Huang)Internal Southern Ocean Centennial Variability: Dynamics, Impacts and Implications for Global Warming (Mojib Latif, Torge Martin, Wonsun Park, and Mohammad H Bordbar)Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Climate (Rong Zhang)North Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability — Mechanisms and Predictability (Noel S Keenlyside, Jin Ba, Jennifer Mecking, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Mojib Latif, Rong Zhang, and Rym Msadek)A Review of the Dynamics of Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability (Zhengyu Liu)Global-Scale Decadal Hyper Modes (Dietmar Dommenget)Evidence for a Recurrent Multi-Decadal Oscillation in Global Temperature and Possible Impacts on 21st Century Climate Projections (Ka-Kit Tung and Jiansong Zhou)Variability of Sea Ice Extent Over Decadal and Longer Timescales (John E Walsh and William L Chapman)Multi-year Prediction and Predictability (Timothy DelSole, Michael K Tippett, and Liwei Jia)Decadal Hydroclimate Variability Across the Americas (Richard Seager)The Interhemispheric Pattern and Long-Term Variations in the Tropical Climate over the 20th and 21st Centuries (John C H Chiang)Climate of China in the Holocene (Wang Shaowu, Wen Xinyu, and Huang Jianbin)North Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Past, Present and Future (Rym Msadek, Gabriel A Vecchi, and Thomas R Knutson)Observed Variations of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity on Decadal Time Scales and Longer (Johnny C L Chan)Record-Breaking Increase of Tropical Cyclone Heavy Rainfall in Taiwan in the First Decade of 21st Century (Chih-Pei Chang, Hung-Chi Kuo, and Chung-Hsiung Sui)Multi-Decadal Variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Proxy Data (Bhupendra N Goswami, Ramesh H Kripalani, Hemant P Borgaonkar, and Bhaskar Preethi)The South-Flood North-Drought Pattern Over Eastern China and the Drying of the Gangetic Plain (Sumant Nigam, Yongjing Zhao, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, and Tianjun Zhou)Impacts of Aerosols on the Asian Monsoon — An Interim Assessment (William K M Lau and Kyu-Myong Kim) Readership: Graduate students, academics and researchers in atmospheric sciences, oceanography, mathematics, and climate change. Keywords:Climate Change;Multidecadal Variability;Climate Variability Asia-Pacific Weather

Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2019-06-18

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 0309492432

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We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.

Earth Science and Applications from Space

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2007-10-01

Total Pages: 460

ISBN-13: 9780309103879

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Natural and human-induced changes in Earth's interior, land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, and oceans affect all aspects of life. Understanding these changes requires a range of observations acquired from land-, sea-, air-, and space-based platforms. To assist NASA, NOAA, and USGS in developing these tools, the NRC was asked to carry out a "decadal strategy" survey of Earth science and applications from space that would develop the key scientific questions on which to focus Earth and environmental observations in the period 2005-2015 and beyond, and present a prioritized list of space programs, missions, and supporting activities to address these questions. This report presents a vision for the Earth science program; an analysis of the existing Earth Observing System and recommendations to help restore its capabilities; an assessment of and recommendations for new observations and missions for the next decade; an examination of and recommendations for effective application of those observations; and an analysis of how best to sustain that observation and applications system.

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2022-05-19

Total Pages: 1807

ISBN-13: 1009178466

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Beyond Global Warming

Author: John Durbin Husher

Publisher: Litprime Solutions

Published: 2021-06-26

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13: 9781954886674

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Affecting millions of people worldwide, global warming is one of today's most timely and vital topics. It's an issue that's been studied, written about, and debated by scientists and lay people alike. But in Beyond Global Warming, engineer John Durbin Husher argues that we have an even bigger problem on our hands' and shows us what we need to do about it. In Beyond Global Warming, Husher looks at the origins and causes of global warming and delivers compelling answers to the following questions: - What is the earth's history relating to climate changes? What caused those changes? - Is the population increase responsible for the global warming? - Did the addition of oil and fossil fuels to the environment contribute to global warming? Husher suggests that the earth has been consistent and resilient to the many weather events it has experienced since its inception. He maintains that global warming is not related to an overall increase of carbon dioxide in the air, but that it is indicative of a far more pressing energy issue. Beyond Global Warming offers eight creative and powerful solutions for the crisis behind global warming so that, together, we can ease the situation for future generations.

Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2016-07-22

Total Pages: 92

ISBN-13: 0309444640

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Many factors contribute to variability in Earth's climate on a range of timescales, from seasons to decades. Natural climate variability arises from two different sources: (1) internal variability from interactions among components of the climate system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2) natural external forcings, such as variations in the amount of radiation from the Sun. External forcings on the climate system also arise from some human activities, such as the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The climate that we experience is a combination of all of these factors. Understanding climate variability on the decadal timescale is important to decision-making. Planners and policy makers want information about decadal variability in order to make decisions in a range of sectors, including for infrastructure, water resources, agriculture, and energy. In September 2015, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to examine variability in Earth's climate on decadal timescales, defined as 10 to 30 years. During the workshop, ocean and climate scientists reviewed the state of the science of decadal climate variability and its relationship to rates of human-caused global warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis

Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2023-07-26

Total Pages: 2410

ISBN-13: 1009175351

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The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It considers in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical, and biological processes and feedbacks; global and regional climate modelling; advances in methods of analyses; and insights from climate services. It assesses the current state of the climate; human influence on climate in all regions; future climate change including sea level rise; global warming effects including extremes; climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation; limiting climate change by reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions and reducing other greenhouse gas emissions; and benefits for air quality. The report serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with the latest policy-relevant information on climate change. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Beyond Global Warming

Author: Syukuro Manabe

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2020-01-14

Total Pages: 211

ISBN-13: 0691058865

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Syukuro Manabe is perhaps the leading pioneer of modern climate modeling. Beyond Global Warming is his compelling firsthand account of how the scientific community came to understand the human causes of climate change, and how numerical models using the world's most powerful computers have been instrumental to these vital discoveries. Joined here by atmospheric scientist Anthony Broccoli, Manabe shows how climate models have been used as virtual laboratories for examining the complex planetary interactions of atmosphere, ocean, and land. Manabe and Broccoli use these studies as the basis for a broader discussion of human-induced global warming--and what the future may hold for a warming planet. They tell the stories of early trailblazers such as Svante Arrhenius, the legendary Swedish scientist who created the first climate model of Earth more than a century ago, and provide rare insights into Manabe's own groundbreaking work over the past five decades. Expertly walking readers through key breakthroughs, they explain why increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide has caused temperatures to rise in the troposphere yet fall in the stratosphere, why the warming of the planet's surface differs by hemisphere, why drought is becoming more frequent in arid regions despite the global increase in precipitation, and much more.

Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region

Author: R. Krishnan

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-06-12

Total Pages: 226

ISBN-13: 9811543275

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This open access book discusses the impact of human-induced global climate change on the regional climate and monsoons of the Indian subcontinent, adjoining Indian Ocean and the Himalayas. It documents the regional climate change projections based on the climate models used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and climate change modeling studies using the IITM Earth System Model (ESM) and CORDEX South Asia datasets. The IPCC assessment reports, published every 6–7 years, constitute important reference materials for major policy decisions on climate change, adaptation, and mitigation. While the IPCC assessment reports largely provide a global perspective on climate change, the focus on regional climate change aspects is considerably limited. The effects of climate change over the Indian subcontinent involve complex physical processes on different space and time scales, especially given that the mean climate of this region is generally shaped by the Indian monsoon and the unique high-elevation geographical features such as the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau and the adjoining Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. This book also presents policy relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2013-12-31

Total Pages: 281

ISBN-13: 0309287766

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Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.