-PDF Download- Climate Change And Agriculture In Eastern And Southern Africa An Updated Assessment Based On The Latest Global Climate Models EBOOK

Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models

Author: Thomas, Timothy S.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2024-02-27

Total Pages: 97

ISBN-13:

In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture in Africa

Author: Kenneth M. Strzepek

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13:

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This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.

Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa

Author: Ariel Dinar

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2012-05-16

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13: 1136569731

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'This is a well researched, thorough and impressive work on climate change and agriculture in Africa. I recommend it to students, researchers and practitioners working on climate change issues' Jabavu Clifford Nkomo, senior programme specialist, IDRC This landmark book encompasses a comprehensive assessment of the potential economic impacts of future climate change, and the value of adaptation measures in Africa for different zones, regions, countries and farm types. Researchers developed and applied multiple analytical procedures to assess quantitatively how climate affects current agricultural systems in Africa, enabling them to predict how these systems may be affected in the future by climate change under various global warming scenarios, and suggesting what role adaptation could play. The study is the first to combine spatially referenced household survey data with climatic data at both national and international levels. This book provides vital knowledge about the impacts of climate change on Africa, serving as a guide to policy intervention strategies and investment in adaptation measures. It makes a major contribution to the analysis of climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies, especially in the highly vulnerable farming communities in the developing world. Published with CEEPA and supported by the World Bank.

Managing a Changing Climate in Africa

Author: Pius Z. Yanda

Publisher: African Books Collective

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13: 9987080898

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There is sufficient evidence to support the fact that climate change is occurring and that this is set to accelerate. While some scholars argue that climate change is largely due to natural changes, others postulate that anthropogenic factors are the major cause. Climate change associated with increasing levels of carbon dioxide is likely to affect developed and developing countries differentially, with major vulnerabilities occurring in low-latitude regions. This book presents research findings and case studies with the endeavour to inform policies geared towards addressing problems emanating from these changes. Climate variability raises concerns over the future of agriculture, conditions of land and water availability. Therefore, climate change amplifies many economic and social risks, as well as deterioration of the environment. At the same time, non-climatic risk factors such as economic instability, trade liberalization, conflicts and poor governance all inflict upon vulnerable communities. Key discussions in this title rest on: Climate Change in Africa: its impact on rural communities, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, financial requirements of reducing green house gases, technological transfer and natural resources; Case Studies of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability in Eastern and Southern Africa: experiences of impacts and adaptation to extreme events, concrete experiences from farmers and crop production adaptation; and Challenges and Opportunities to Climate Change Adaptation: factors that influence choice of response strategies, challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based approaches; and challenges and opportunities from the use of bio-fuels as a mitigation measure to climate change.

Handbook Of Climate Change And Agroecosystems - Climate Change And Farming System Planning In Africa And South Asia: Agmip Stakeholder-driven Research (In 2 Parts)

Author: Cynthia Rosenzweig

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2021-04-13

Total Pages: 831

ISBN-13: 1786348772

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This two-part handbook focuses on the work that the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) accomplished using a new method — the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment Protocol — in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia (SA), with funding from the UK Department for International Development. Through this research, AgMIP substantially improves the characterization and understanding of food security in SSA and SA and how its affected by climate variability and change.The chapters in this handbook demonstrate how AgMIP has enhanced the capacity of developing country researchers and stakeholders to work together, exploring and prioritizing adaptation to current and future climate stresses. Part 1 describes regional integrated assessment methods and analyses, while Part 2 presents the outcomes of farming system studies. The entire volume shows how AgMIP has established, as a public good, protocols for Regional Integrated Assessments that improve the capability of developing countries to address climate change challenges.Related Link(s)

Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change

Author: Alexander Lotsch

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13:

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The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals significant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in temperatures relative to current conditions). Despite discrepancies and uncertainties in climate model output, the analysis suggests that cropland area in Africa is likely to decrease significantly in response to transient changes in climate. The continent is expected to have lost on average 4.1 percent of its cropland by 2039, and 18.4 percent is likely to have disappeared by the end of the century. In some regions of Africa the losses in cropland area are likely to occur at a much faster rate, with northern and eastern Africa losing up to 15 percent of their current cropland area within the next 30 years or so. Gains in cropland area in western and southern Africa due to projected increases in precipitation during the earlier portions of the century will be offset by losses later on. In conjunction with existing challenges in the agricultural sector in Africa, these findings demand sound policies to manage existing agricultural lands and the productivity of cropping systems.