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China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown

Author: Gee Hee Hong

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-05-26

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1484368568

Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia

Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

Published: 2016-11-18

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 9781542904476

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The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.

The Global Trade Slowdown

Author: Cristina Constantinescu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-01-21

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1498399134

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This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade

Author: Patrick Blagrave

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-27

Total Pages: 18

ISBN-13: 1475539460

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Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.

Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Author: Allan Dizioli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-08-09

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 1475524269

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After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

Author: Aqib Aslam

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-11-15

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1484328981

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Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.

The Future of Asian Trade and Growth

Author: Linda Yueh

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 531

ISBN-13: 1134207581

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This book presents a comprehensive analysis of current trends of trade and economic growth in Asia, assessing how they are likely to develop in the future. It examines the evolving patterns of Asian economic development with the emergence of China, including since China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. It is written by experts specialising in economic growth and regional and global trade/investment issues, alongside country specialists who have examined the development path of Asian economies. It discusses the significance of a export-oriented growth strategy on the Asian region, and the likely patterns of intra-regional specialisation given China’s rise. The book examines the degree to which the remarkable growth of China is likely to affect other Asian countries in terms of global market share, and growth prospects. The book explores how the rise of intra-industry trade is affecting patterns of specialisation in the region, and appraises the role of multinational corporations and foreign direct investment. Informed by the latest empirical economic thinking, this book is a rigorous examination of the influence of an emerging economic superpower, and the future for economic growth in Asia. Readers interested in the implications of the rise of China, the effect on the economic development path of the most successful developing nations of our time and the lessons to be heeded from China’s integration with the global economy will find this a thorough yet accessible account of the influence of an emerging economic superpower.

The State Strikes Back

Author: Nicholas R. Lardy

Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics

Published: 2019-01-01

Total Pages: 258

ISBN-13: 0881327387

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China's extraordinarily rapid economic growth since 1978, driven by market-oriented reforms, has set world records and continued unabated, despite predictions of an inevitable slowdown. In The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?, renowned China scholar Nicholas R. Lardy argues that China's future growth prospects could be equally bright but are shadowed by the specter of resurgent state dominance, which has begun to diminish the vital role of the market and private firms in China's economy. Lardy's book arrives in timely fashion as a sequel to his pathbreaking Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China, published by PIIE in 2014. This book mobilizes new data to trace how President Xi Jinping has consistently championed state-owned or controlled enterprises, encouraging local political leaders and financial institutions to prop up ailing, underperforming companies that are a drag on China's potential. As with his previous book, Lardy's perspective departs from conventional wisdom, especially in its contention that China could achieve a high growth rate for the next two decades—if it reverses course and returns to the path of market-oriented reforms.

The Rise of China and Structural Changes in Korea and Asia

Author: Takatoshi Ito

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2010-01-01

Total Pages: 353

ISBN-13: 1849805296

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This book brings together studies conducted by researchers in East Asian countries who seek to better understand the impact of China s rise and the consequent policy challenges. The expert contributors illustrate that the rise of China and its integration with the rest of the world is one of the most important developments in the global economy. Over the past thirty years or so, China s economy has grown at nearly ten percent per annum with the expansion of the modern, export-oriented industrial sector, to become the third largest economy in the world and the second largest in trade. This book reviews the economic growth of East Asian countries since the 1990s and the various impacts that the rise of China has had on these countries. In particular, it addresses policy challenges faced in coping with the rise of China and maintaining economic growth. This timely book will strongly appeal to academics and researchers focusing on East Asia and China as well as those interested in international trade, development and economic growth.

China's Growing Role in World Trade

Author: Robert C. Feenstra

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2010-03-10

Total Pages: 603

ISBN-13: 0226239721

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In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.