Chaos And Forecasting - Proceedings Of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting

Chaos And Forecasting - Proceedings Of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting PDF

Author: Howell A M Tong

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 1995-04-26

Total Pages: 358

ISBN-13: 9814549762

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It is now generally recognised that very simple dynamical systems can produce apparently random behaviour. In the last couple of years, attention has turned to focus on the flip side of this coin: random-looking time series (or random-looking patterns in space) may indeed be the result of very complicated processes or “real noise”, but they may equally well be produced by some very simple mechanism (a low-dimensional attractor). In either case, a long-term prediction will be possible only in probabilistic terms. However, in the very short term, random systems will still be unpredictable but low-dimensional chaotic ones may be predictable (appearances to the contrary). The Royal Society held a two-day discussion meeting on topics covering diverse fields, including biology, economics, geophysics, meteorology, statistics, epidemiology, earthquake science and many others. Each topic was covered by a leading expert in the field. The meeting dealt with different basic approaches to the problem of chaos and forecasting, and covered applications to nonlinear forecasting of both artificially-generated time series and real data from context in the above-mentioned diverse fields. This book marks a rather special and rare occasion on which prominent scientists from different areas converge on the same theme. It forms an informative introduction to the science of chaos, with special reference to real data.

Chaos and Forecasting

Chaos and Forecasting PDF

Author: Royal Society (Great Britain). Discussion Meeting

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated

Published: 1995

Total Pages: 345

ISBN-13: 9789810221263

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Chaos in Real Data

Chaos in Real Data PDF

Author: J.N. Perry

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 9401140103

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Chaos in Real Data studies the range of data analytic techniques available to study nonlinear population dynamics for ecological time series. Several case studies are studied using typically short and noisy population data from field and laboratory. A range of modern approaches, such as response surface methodology and mechanistic mathematical modelling, are applied to several case studies. Experts honestly appraise how well these methods have performed on their data. The accessible style of the book ensures its readability for non-quantitative biologists. The data remain available, as benchmarks for future study, on the worldwide web.

Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series

Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series PDF

Author:

Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 262

ISBN-13: 0821841858

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Lars Ahlfors's Lectures on Quasiconformal Mappings, based on a course he gave at Harvard University in the spring term of 1964, was first published in 1966 and was soon recognized as the classic it was shortly destined to become. These lectures develop the theory of quasiconformal mappings from scratch, give a self-contained treatment of the Beltrami equation, and cover the basic properties of Teichmuller spaces, including the Bers embedding and the Teichmuller curve. It isremarkable how Ahlfors goes straight to the heart of the matter, presenting major results with a minimum set of prerequisites. Many graduate students and other mathematicians have learned the foundations of the theories of quasiconformal mappings and Teichmuller spaces from these lecture notes. This editionincludes three new chapters. The first, written by Earle and Kra, describes further developments in the theory of Teichmuller spaces and provides many references to the vast literature on Teichmuller spaces and quasiconformal mappings. The second, by Shishikura, describes how quasiconformal mappings have revitalized the subject of complex dynamics. The third, by Hubbard, illustrates the role of these mappings in Thurston's theory of hyperbolic structures on 3-manifolds. Together, these threenew chapters exhibit the continuing vitality and importance of the theory of quasiconformal mappings. This book is a collection of research and expository papers reflecting the interfacing of two fields: nonlinear dynamics (in the physiological and biological sciences) and statistics. It presents theproceedings of a four-day workshop entitled ``Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series: Building a Bridge Between the Natural and Statistical Sciences'' held at the Centre de Recherches Mathematiques (CRM) in Montreal in July 1995. The goal of the workshop was to provide an exchange forum and to create a link between two diverse groups with a common interest in the analysis of nonlinear time series data. The editors and peer reviewers of this work have attempted to minimize the problems ofmaintaining communication between the different scientific fields. The result is a collection of interrelated papers that highlight current areas of research in statistics that might have particular applicability to nonlinear dynamics and new methodology and open data analysis problems in nonlinear dynamicsthat might find their way into the toolkits and research interests of statisticians. Features: A survey of state-of-the-art developments in nonlinear dynamics time series analysis with open statistical problems and areas for further research. Contributions by statisticians to understanding and improving modern techniques commonly associated with nonlinear time series analysis, such as surrogate data methods and estimation of local Lyapunov exponents. Starting point for both scientists andstatisticians who want to explore the field. Expositions that are readable to scientists outside the featured fields of specialization. Information for our distributors: Titles in this series are copublished with the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences (Toronto, Ontario,Canada).

Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series

Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series PDF

Author: Colleen D. Cutler

Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.

Published:

Total Pages: 266

ISBN-13: 9780821871195

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Lars Ahlfors's Lectures on Quasiconformal Mappings, based on a course he gave at Harvard University in the spring term of 1964, was first published in 1966 and was soon recognized as the classic it was shortly destined to become. These lectures develop the theory of quasiconformal mappings from scratch, give a self-contained treatment of the Beltrami equation, and cover the basic properties of Teichmuller spaces, including the Bers embedding and the Teichmuller curve. It isremarkable how Ahlfors goes straight to the heart of the matter, presenting major results with a minimum set of prerequisites. Many graduate students and other mathematicians have learned the foundations of the theories of quasiconformal mappings and Teichmuller spaces from these lecture notes. This editionincludes three new chapters. The first, written by Earle and Kra, describes further developments in the theory of Teichmuller spaces and provides many references to the vast literature on Teichmuller spaces and quasiconformal mappings. The second, by Shishikura, describes how quasiconformal mappings have revitalized the subject of complex dynamics. The third, by Hubbard, illustrates the role of these mappings in Thurston's theory of hyperbolic structures on 3-manifolds. Together, these threenew chapters exhibit the continuing vitality and importance of the theory of quasiconformal mappings. This book is a collection of research and expository papers reflecting the interfacing of two fields: nonlinear dynamics (in the physiological and biological sciences) and statistics. It presents theproceedings of a four-day workshop entitled ''Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series: Building a Bridge Between the Natural and Statistical Sciences'' held at the Centre de Recherches Mathematiques (CRM) in Montreal in July 1995. The goal of the workshop was to provide an exchange forum and to create a link between two diverse groups with a common interest in the analysis of nonlinear time series data. The editors and peer reviewers of this work have attempted to minimize the problems ofmaintaining communication between the different scientific fields. The result is a collection of interrelated papers that highlight current areas of research in statistics that might have particular applicability to nonlinear dynamics and new methodology and open data analysis problems in nonlinear dynamicsthat might find their way into the toolkits and research interests of statisticians. Features: A survey of state-of-the-art developments in nonlinear dynamics time series analysis with open statistical problems and areas for further research. Contributions by statisticians to understanding and improving modern techniques commonly associated with nonlinear time series analysis, such as surrogate data methods and estimation of local Lyapunov exponents. Starting point for both scientists andstatisticians who want to explore the field. Expositions that are readable to scientists outside the featured fields of specialization. Information for our distributors: Titles in this series are copublished with the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences (Toronto, Ontario,Canada).

Applying Neural Networks

Applying Neural Networks PDF

Author: Kevin Swingler

Publisher: Morgan Kaufmann

Published: 1996

Total Pages: 348

ISBN-13: 9780126791709

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This book is designed to enable the reader to design and run a neural network-based project. It presents everything the reader will need to know to ensure the success of such a project. The book contains a free disk with C and C++ programs, which implement many of the techniques discussed in the book.

Dynamical Chaos

Dynamical Chaos PDF

Author: Royal Society (Great Britain). Discussion Meeting

Publisher: Royal Society (GB)

Published: 1987

Total Pages: 212

ISBN-13:

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Complex Population Dynamics

Complex Population Dynamics PDF

Author: Peter Turchin

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2013-02-15

Total Pages: 471

ISBN-13: 1400847281

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Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations? Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations. Peter Turchin first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations, introducing population modeling and the statistical analysis of time series data. He then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies--including the larch budmoth, southern pine beetle, red grouse, voles and lemmings, snowshoe hare, and ungulates--to develop a new analysis of the mechanisms that drive population oscillations in nature. Through such work, the author argues, ecologists can develop general laws of population dynamics that will help turn ecology into a truly quantitative and predictive science. Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. It is also a pioneering work that sets the course for ecology's future as a predictive science.