Changes in Fire Weather Distributions

Changes in Fire Weather Distributions PDF

Author: Lucy Anne Salazar

Publisher:

Published: 1984

Total Pages: 16

ISBN-13:

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Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the northern Rocky Mountains were treated as probability distributions, then used in computer simulation to estimate distributions of rate-of-spread (ROS) and fireline intensity (FLI). Sensitivity of ROS and FLl to weather input changes was analyzed by varying the source and amount of weather data, and diurnally adjusting temperature and relative humidity. In eight representative cases, a minimum amount of data produced the lowest cumulative probabilities of ROS and FLl, and data from a higher elevation produced the highest values. For long-term planning, within the region studied, a small subset of weather data distributions was adequate for estimating probabilistic distributions of ROS and FLI. Joint probabilities of ROS and FLI differed substantially among test cases. Fire behavior values obtained with observed data were higher than those obtained with diurnally adjusted data. The simulation techniques used are appropriate for use in long-term fire management planning models.

Fire Weather (Agriculture Handbook 360) - Guide for Application of Meteorological Information to Forest Fire Control Operations, Winds, Moisture, Temperature, Fronts, Thunderstorms, Climate Regions

Fire Weather (Agriculture Handbook 360) - Guide for Application of Meteorological Information to Forest Fire Control Operations, Winds, Moisture, Temperature, Fronts, Thunderstorms, Climate Regions PDF

Author: U. S. Department of Agriculture

Publisher:

Published: 2018-01-14

Total Pages: 358

ISBN-13: 9781976893469

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Weather is never static. It is always dynamic. Its interpretation is an art. The environment is in control in wildland firefighting. Free-burning fires are literally nourished by weather elements, atmospheric components, and atmospheric motion. Outguessing Mother Nature in order to win control is an extremely difficult task. We need to soothe her with understanding. We have attempted to present information in such a way that your daily and seasonal awareness of fire weather can begin with reliable basic knowledge. We have kept the use of technical terms to a minimum, but where it was necessary for clear and accurate presentation, we have introduced and defined the proper terms. Growing awareness of fire weather, when combined with related experience on fires, can develop into increasingly intuitive, rapid, and accurate applications. Toward this end, we have preceded each chapter with a paragraph or two on important points to look for in relating weather factors to fire control planning and action. The illustrations are designed to help you "see" the weather from many different locations. The illustrations should help you to evaluate fire weather in all of its dimensions, and simultaneously to keep track of its continually changing character.CHAPTER 1 - BASIC PRINCIPLES - The primary causes of the actions, reactions, and interactions of the components of the atmosphere and the elements of weather need to be understood because the behavior of wildland fire depends upon them. CHAPTER 2 - TEMPERATURE - The continual changes in land, sea, and air temperatures from hot to cold during day and night and summer and winter affect fire-weather judgments and predictions. CHAPTER 3 - ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE - The amount of water vapor in the air-the degree of "wetness" and "dryness" as a condition of fire weather-must be considered in all evaluations of wildland fire potential and control. CHAPTER 4 - ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY - The distributions of temperature and moisture aloft, although difficult to perceive thousands of feet above the surface, can critically influence the behavior of a wildland fire. CHAPTER 5 - GENERAL CIRCULATION - Large-scale circulation of air and moisture in the atmosphere sets the regional patterns for both long-term trends and seasonal variations in fire weather. CHAPTER 6 - GENERAL WINDS - An understanding of the mechanics of wind flow as measured and expressed in terms of speed and vertical and horizontal directions, both regionally and locally, are of extreme importance to the wildland fire-control man. CHAPTER 7 - CONVECTIVE WINDS - Local surface conditions resulting in the heating and cooling of the surface air cause air motions which can account for "unusual" wind behavior on a wildland fire. CHAPTER 8 - AIR MASSES AND FRONTS - Both warm and cold air masses, usually coincident with high-pressure cells, migrate constantly over areas of thousands of square miles. When they are stationary, fire weather changes only gradually from day to, day, but when they move and overtake or encounter other air masses, weather elements do change-often -suddenly. CHAPTER 9 - CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION - Clouds, in both amounts and kinds, or their absence, are indicators of fire-weather conditions that must be evaluated daily. Some can locally forewarn fire-control men of high fire hazard.-Not all of them produce rain. CHAPTER 10 - THUNDERSTORMS - When a moist air mass becomes unstable, thunderstorms are likely. Their fire-starting potential and effect on fire behavior can be anticipated if the weather conditions, which produce them, are understood. CHAPTER 11 - WEATHER AND FUEL MOISTURE - The response of both living and dead forest and range fuels, the food on which wildland fire feeds, to atmospheric and precipitated moisture affect wildland fire prevention and control. CHAPTER 12 - FIRE CLIMATE REGIONS - An overall look and a summary of regional fire-weather characteristics.

Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System

Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System PDF

Author: B. D. Lawson

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 90

ISBN-13:

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This weather guide includes detailed specifications for locating and instrumenting fire weather stations, taking weather observations, and overwintering the Drought Code component of the FWI System. The sensitivity of the FWI System components to weather elements is represented quantitatively. The importance of weather that is not directly observable is discussed in the context of fuel moisture and fire behavior. Current developments in the observation and measurement of fire weather and the forecasting of fire danger are discussed, along with the implications for the reporting of fire weather of increasingly automated fire management information systems.

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PDF

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2016-07-28

Total Pages: 187

ISBN-13: 0309380979

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As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts PDF

Author: Vyacheslav Lyubchich

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2020-10-06

Total Pages: 395

ISBN-13: 1351190822

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Evaluating Climate Change Impacts discusses assessing and quantifying climate change and its impacts from a multi-faceted perspective of ecosystem, social, and infrastructure resilience, given through a lens of statistics and data science. It provides a multi-disciplinary view on the implications of climate variability and shows how the new data science paradigm can help us to mitigate climate-induced risk and to enhance climate adaptation strategies. This book consists of chapters solicited from leading topical experts and presents their perspectives on climate change effects in two general areas: natural ecosystems and socio-economic impacts. The chapters unveil topics of atmospheric circulation, climate modeling, and long-term prediction; approach the problems of increasing frequency of extreme events, sea level rise, and forest fires, as well as economic losses, analysis of climate impacts for insurance, agriculture, fisheries, and electric and transport infrastructures. The reader will be exposed to the current research using a variety of methods from physical modeling, statistics, and machine learning, including the global circulation models (GCM) and ocean models, statistical generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM), state space and graphical models, causality networks, Bayesian ensembles, a variety of index methods and statistical tests, and machine learning methods. The reader will learn about data from various sources, including GCM and ocean model outputs, satellite observations, and data collected by different agencies and research units. Many of the chapters provide references to open source software R and Python code that are available for implementing the methods.

Climate Change and the Future Fire Environment in Ontario

Climate Change and the Future Fire Environment in Ontario PDF

Author: Mike Wotton

Publisher: Sault Ste Marie : Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Applied Research and Development

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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The increased fi re load is expected to increase the cost of fi re management in the province 16% by the year 2040 and 54% by the year 2090 over year 2000 costs, exclusive of infl ation or other factors. [...] In addition to increases in seasonal fi re severity indices, a number of these studies also predict increases in the frequency of occurrence of extreme fi re danger in some areas of the country (e.g., Stocks et al. [...] This study uses lightning- and people-caused fi re occurrence models developed specifi cally for Ontario with GCM projections of future climate and Ontario's level of protection analysis software, LEOPARDS (see McAlpine and Hirsch 1999) to estimate the impacts of climate change on the fi re management organization both in terms of numbers of escaped fi res and with respect to changes in operationa [...] The sites of the GCM grid cell centres and OMNR weather stations used are shown in Figure 1. Fire Weather and Fire Danger To create the fi re climate of a future decade, the monthly anomalies were applied to the daily data from the OMNR fi re weather station archive from the years 1992-2001 (corresponding to the period over which lightning records were available). [...] The Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992) was used in conjunction with the Initial Spread Index (ISI), the Build-up Index (BUI) (calculated on the detection date of the fi re using the FWI System), and the fuel type associated with the fi re to estimate an initial rate of spread for each fi re.

Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest

Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest PDF

Author: Eric S. Kasischke

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-08-22

Total Pages: 490

ISBN-13: 0387216294

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A discussion of the direct and indirect mechanisms by which fire and climate interact to influence carbon cycling in North American boreal forests. The first section summarizes the information needed to understand and manage fires' effects on the ecology of boreal forests and its influence on global climate change issues. Following chapters discuss in detail the role of fire in the ecology of boreal forests, present data sets on fire and the distribution of carbon, and treat the use of satellite imagery in monitoring these regions as well as approaches to modeling the relevant processes.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts PDF

Author: Stéphane Vannitsem

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2018-05-17

Total Pages: 362

ISBN-13: 012812248X

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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner