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How to Calibrate Fiscal Rules

Author: Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1484337301

This note provides guidance on how to calibrate fiscal rules, that is, how to determine the thresholds (ceiling, floor, or target) for specific fiscal aggregates constrained by rules. The note focuses, more specifically, on the calibration of the debt, balance, and expenditure rules. The note is divided into four sections. The first section discusses general principles used to calibrate rules. The second section reports international evidence on the numerical ceilings used in existing rules. The third and fourth sections provide guidance on the calibration of the debt ceiling and the operational rules (fiscal balance and expenditure rules). This is one of two guidance notes on the design of fiscal rules; the other one focuses on rule selection. The two exercises are linked: if a fiscal framework had to be built from scratch, rules would need to be selected and calibrated at the same time.

Calibrating Fiscal Rules

Author: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-07-31

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13:

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This technical note assesses how large shocks from natural disasters are key source of vulnerabilities for public finances. It extends the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department calibration toolkit by developing a methodology to calibrate fiscal rules in the event of natural disaster shocks and the possibility of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation measures. The features incorporated in this technical note would allow the calibration of a prudent medium-term fiscal anchor as well as annual budgetary limits that ensure the sustainability of public finances. The note is accompanied by a set of toolkits that provides instructions on calibrating a medium-term debt anchor and corresponding operational rules in the presence of natural disaster risks, accounting for climate investment and other mitigation mechanisms.

Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Author: Juan Carlos Hatchondo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-01-01

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1463948875

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This paper finds optimal fiscal rule parameter values and measures the effects of imposing fiscal rules using a default model calibrated to an economy that in the absence of a fiscal rule pays a significant sovereign default premium. The paper also studies the case in which the government conducts a voluntary debt restructuring to capture the capital gains from the increase in its debt market value implied by a rule announcement. In addition, the paper shows how debt ceilings may reduce the procyclicality of fiscal policy and thus consumption volatility.

How to Design Subnational Fiscal Rules

Author: Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-02-25

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1513527037

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This note discusses how to design subnational fiscal rules, including how to select them and calibrate them. It expands on the guidance provided at the national level on rule selection and calibration in IMF (2018a) and IMF (2018b). Thinking on subnational fiscal rules is still evolving, including their effectiveness (for example, Heinemann, Moessinger, and Yeter 2018; Kotia and Lledó 2016; Foremny 2014), and this note only provides a first analysis based on international experiences and the technical assistance provided by the IMF. Main findings are summarized in Box 1. The note is divided into five sections. The first section defines fiscal rules. The second section discusses the rationale for subnational rules. The third section provides some guidance on how to select the appropriate rule(s) and whether they should differ across individual jurisdictions. The fourth section explores the issue of flexibility by looking at how rules should adjust to shocks. Finally, the last section focuses on the “calibration” of the rules.

How to Select Fiscal Rules

Author: Victor Duarte Lledo

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 9781484337233

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This note provides guidance on how to select fiscal rules in a wide range of economies, including advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. The principles and methods discussed are intuitive and easy to implement, and leave room for policy judgment. The methods are based on past academic and IMF work, including analytic and policy papers, technical assistance missions, and training. The note is structured as follows. The first section lays out general principles regarding the design of fiscal rules. The second section reviews the most common rules and describes their pros and cons. The third section presents the various types of analytical tools used to select fiscal rules (some files and manuals accompany this note to implement the methods; they are available from the authors upon request). The last section offers some considerations on rules in developing countries, with a specific focus on commodity exporters. An overview of the theoretical literature is provided in the Appendix. This is one of two guidance notes on the design of fiscal rules; the other one focuses on rule calibration. The two exercises are linked: if a fiscal framework had to be built from scratch, rules would need to be selected and calibrated at the same time.

Second-Generation Fiscal Rules

Author: Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-13

Total Pages: 132

ISBN-13: 1484350685

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Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog

“Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy”

Author: Nicoletta Batini

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-01-01

Total Pages: 80

ISBN-13: 1451871694

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We develop a optimal rules-based interpretation of the 'three pillars macroeconomic policy framework': a combination of a freely floating exchange rate, an explicit target for inflation, and a mechanism than ensures a stable government debt-GDP ratio around a specified long run. We show how such monetary-fiscal rules need to be adjusted to accommodate specific features of emerging market economies. The model takes the form of two-blocs, a DSGE emerging small open economy interacting with the rest of the world and features, in particular, financial frictions It is calibrated using Chile and US data. Alongside the optimal Ramsey policy benchmark, we model the three pillars as simple monetary and fiscal rules including and both domestic and CPI inflation targeting interest rate rules alongside a 'Structural Surplus Fiscal Rule' as followed recently in Chile. A comparison with a fixed exchange rate regime is made. We find that domestic inflation targeting is superior to partially or implicitly (through a CPI inflation target) or fully attempting to stabilizing the exchange rate. Financial frictions require fiscal policy to play a bigger role and lead to an increase in the costs associated with simple rules as opposed to the fully optimal policy.

Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances

Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-12-11

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13: 1498335160

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The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation, discusses the design and implementation of rules based on a new data base spanning the whole Fund membership, and explores the fiscal framework that could be adopted as countries emerge from the crisis.

Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability

Author: Mr.Serhan Cevik

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-11-08

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1513519867

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This paper assesses the cyclicality and sustainability of fiscal policy in Belize and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy in Belize has been significantly procyclical and unsustainable much of the period since 1976. While the government’s recent commitment to maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP until 2021 is supporting debt reduction, stochastic simulations indicate that further improvement in the primary balance is necessary to reliably bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable path. Given Belize’s history of large economic shocks, this paper proposes explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and debt sustainability. It recommends integrating such rules into a well-designed fiscal responsibility law and establishing an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-03-01

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1451844239

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Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.