Lanterna Rally
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Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment
Author: Mr.Ralph Chami
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2020-03-13
Total Pages: 26
ISBN-13: 1513531867
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.
A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-term Interest Rates
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
Published: 1983
Total Pages: 58
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by adistributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate "overreacts" to the short rate. This paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia, or deviations from the expectations theory. This enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated. It is shown that, if anything, the long rate has underreacted to the short rate. However, the independent movement of the long rate is primarily responsible for the failure of the expectations theory.
Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Burton Gordon Malkiel
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2015-12-08
Total Pages: 294
ISBN-13: 1400879787
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →Can expectations alone explain the yield differentials among bonds of different maturities? To what extend do attitudes toward risk and transactions costs influence the behavior of bond investors? Is it possible for the Federal Reserve to "twist" the interest-rate structure in accordance with its policy objectives? These are among the questions treated. Originally published in 1966. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates
The Behavior of Real Interest Rates in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Programs
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 1994-06-01
Total Pages: 39
ISBN-13: 1451849664
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →This paper examines the behavior of real interest rates in exchange-rate based stabilization programs. The analysis is based on a model with imperfect capital mobility and optimizing agents. A permanent reduction in the devaluation rate is first shown to have an ambiguous effect on real interest rates on impact. The analysis is then extended to consider a stabilization program characterized by an initial reduction in the rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, and the announcement of a future increase in income taxes. The impact effect on real interest rates is shown to depend upon the degree of credibility of the announcement. Real interest rates may fall if agents do not believe that taxes will be raised, and rise if the future tax reform is sufficiently credible.
The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: N. Gregory Mankiw
Publisher:
Published: 1985
Total Pages: 48
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK →We reexamine the expectations theory of the term structure using data at the short end of the maturity spectrum. We find that prior to the founding ofthe Federal Reserve System in 1915, the spread between long rates and short rates has substantial predictive power for the path of interest rates; after 1915, however, the spread contains much less predictive power. We then show that the short rate is approximately a random walk after the founding of the Fed but not before. This latter fact, coupled with even slight variation inthe term premium, can explain the observed change in 1915 in the performance of the expectations theory. We suggest that the random walk character of the short rate may be attributable to the Federal Reserve's commitment to stabilizing interest rates.
The Behavior of Interest Rates: a Progress Report, by Joseph W. Conard
The Behavior of Interest Rates and Credit Flows
