-PDF Download- Bayesian Statistical Modeling With Stan R And Python EBOOK

Bayesian Statistical Modeling with Stan, R, and Python

Author: Kentaro Matsuura

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-01-24

Total Pages: 395

ISBN-13: 9811947554

This book provides a highly practical introduction to Bayesian statistical modeling with Stan, which has become the most popular probabilistic programming language. The book is divided into four parts. The first part reviews the theoretical background of modeling and Bayesian inference and presents a modeling workflow that makes modeling more engineering than art. The second part discusses the use of Stan, CmdStanR, and CmdStanPy from the very beginning to basic regression analyses. The third part then introduces a number of probability distributions, nonlinear models, and hierarchical (multilevel) models, which are essential to mastering statistical modeling. It also describes a wide range of frequently used modeling techniques, such as censoring, outliers, missing data, speed-up, and parameter constraints, and discusses how to lead convergence of MCMC. Lastly, the fourth part examines advanced topics for real-world data: longitudinal data analysis, state space models, spatial data analysis, Gaussian processes, Bayesian optimization, dimensionality reduction, model selection, and information criteria, demonstrating that Stan can solve any one of these problems in as little as 30 lines. Using numerous easy-to-understand examples, the book explains key concepts, which continue to be useful when using future versions of Stan and when using other statistical modeling tools. The examples do not require domain knowledge and can be generalized to many fields. The book presents full explanations of code and math formulas, enabling readers to extend models for their own problems. All the code and data are on GitHub.

Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python

Author: Osvaldo A. Martin

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2021-12-28

Total Pages: 420

ISBN-13: 1000520048

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Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python aims to help beginner Bayesian practitioners to become intermediate modelers. It uses a hands on approach with PyMC3, Tensorflow Probability, ArviZ and other libraries focusing on the practice of applied statistics with references to the underlying mathematical theory. The book starts with a refresher of the Bayesian Inference concepts. The second chapter introduces modern methods for Exploratory Analysis of Bayesian Models. With an understanding of these two fundamentals the subsequent chapters talk through various models including linear regressions, splines, time series, Bayesian additive regression trees. The final chapters include Approximate Bayesian Computation, end to end case studies showing how to apply Bayesian modelling in different settings, and a chapter about the internals of probabilistic programming languages. Finally the last chapter serves as a reference for the rest of the book by getting closer into mathematical aspects or by extending the discussion of certain topics. This book is written by contributors of PyMC3, ArviZ, Bambi, and Tensorflow Probability among other libraries.

Statistical Rethinking

Author: Richard McElreath

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2018-01-03

Total Pages: 488

ISBN-13: 1315362619

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Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition

Author: Andrew Gelman

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2013-11-01

Total Pages: 677

ISBN-13: 1439840954

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Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Time Series Analysis for the State-Space Model with R/Stan

Author: Junichiro Hagiwara

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-08-30

Total Pages: 350

ISBN-13: 9811607117

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This book provides a comprehensive and concrete illustration of time series analysis focusing on the state-space model, which has recently attracted increasing attention in a broad range of fields. The major feature of the book lies in its consistent Bayesian treatment regarding whole combinations of batch and sequential solutions for linear Gaussian and general state-space models: MCMC and Kalman/particle filter. The reader is given insight on flexible modeling in modern time series analysis. The main topics of the book deal with the state-space model, covering extensively, from introductory and exploratory methods to the latest advanced topics such as real-time structural change detection. Additionally, a practical exercise using R/Stan based on real data promotes understanding and enhances the reader’s analytical capability.

Think Bayes

Author: Allen Downey

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2013-09-12

Total Pages: 213

ISBN-13: 1491945443

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If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.

A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods

Author: Peter D. Hoff

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2009-06-02

Total Pages: 271

ISBN-13: 0387924078

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A self-contained introduction to probability, exchangeability and Bayes’ rule provides a theoretical understanding of the applied material. Numerous examples with R-code that can be run "as-is" allow the reader to perform the data analyses themselves. The development of Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in the context of data analysis examples provides motivation for these computational methods.

Bayesian Models for Astrophysical Data

Author: Joseph M. Hilbe

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-04-27

Total Pages: 429

ISBN-13: 1108210740

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This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

Bayesian Models for Astrophysical Data

Author: Joseph M. Hilbe

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-04-27

Total Pages: 429

ISBN-13: 1107133084

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A hands-on guide to Bayesian models with R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, for a wide range of astronomical data types.