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Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar: A microsimulation approach

Author: Diao, Xinshen

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-08-03

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13:

With policy measures imposed by governments around the world to contain and prevent the spread of COVID 19, global and domestic economic activities and trade flows have been interrupted. The unexpected shocks of COVID 19 negatively affect not only Myanmar’s economy, but also the livelihoods of Myanmar households. This Working Paper assesses such impacts at the household level using a microsimulation model based on the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015.

Assessing the Impact on Household Incomes and Poverty of Declines in Remittances Due to COVID-19

Author: Diao, Xinshen

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-06-08

Total Pages: 12

ISBN-13:

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Remittances are an important income source for the poor in Myanmar, particularly for low-income rural households. This policy note focuses on the likely impact on household income and poverty in Myanmar of declines in international and domestic remittances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We used a microsimulation model to do so.

Poverty, food insecurity, and social protection during COVID-19 in Myanmar: Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro-simulations

Author: Headey, Derek D.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-11-10

Total Pages: 13

ISBN-13:

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This study assesses the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on households in Myanmar by combining recent high-frequency telephone survey evidence for two specific rural and urban geographies with national-level survey-based simulations designed to assess ex-ante impacts on poverty with differing amounts of targeted cash transfers. The first source of evidence – the COVID-19 Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (C19- RUFSS) – consists of four rounds of monthly data collected from a sample of over 2,000 households, all with young children or pregnant mothers, divided evenly between urban and peri-urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. This survey sheds light on household incomes prior to COVID-19 (January 2020), incomes and food security status soon after the first COVID-19 wave (June 2020), the gradual economic recovery thereafter (July and August 2020), and the start of the second COVID-19 wave in September and October 2020. This survey gives timely and high-quality evidence on the recent welfare impacts of COVID-19 for two important geographies and for households that are nutritionally highly vulnerable to shocks due to the presence of very young children or pregnant mothers. However, the relatively narrow geographic and demographic focus of this telephone survey and the need for forecasting the poverty impacts of COVID-19 into 2021 prompt us to explore simulationbased evidence derived by applying parameter shocks to household models developed from nationally representative household survey data collected prior to COVID-19, the 2015 Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS). By realistically simulating the kinds of disruptions imposed on Myanmar’s economy by both international forces, e.g., lower agricultural exports and workers’ remittances, and domestic COVID-19 prevention measures. e.g., stay-at-home orders and temporary business closures, we not only can predict the impacts of COVID-19 on household poverty at the rural, urban, and national levels, but also can assess the further benefits to household welfare of social protection in the form of monthly household cash transfers of different magnitudes. Combined, these two sources of evidence yield insights on both the on-the-ground impacts of COVID-19 in recent months and the potential poverty reduction impacts of social protection measures in the coming year. We conclude the study with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

Author: Diao, Xinshen

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-05-29

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13:

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The measures taken by the Government of Myanmar to contain the transmission of COVID-19 are a necessary and appropriate response. In-depth analysis of measures of this magnitude on firms, households, government, and the economy as a whole is key to the design of policy interventions that can mitigate the economic losses and support a sustained and robust recovery. The economic losses to Myanmar’s economy in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be huge – a drop in production on the order of between 6.4 and 9.0 trillion Kyat – and likely will push the economy into a recession or lead to stagnant growth, at best, for the year. Although lockdown policies provide exemptions for most agricultural activities, linkages to other sectors indirectly affect the agri-food sector significantly. The agricultural sector is expected to contract by between 1.1 and 2.4 percent in 2020, and recovery will be slow. Closure of factories will have a large negative economic impact due to the strong linkage effects between manufacturing and upstream primary agriculture and downstream marketing services. Reopening the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic recovery in Myanmar.

Is poverty in Myanmar on the rise? Poverty predictions from Google mobility data

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2021-05-04

Total Pages: 8

ISBN-13:

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The severe economic impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s economy have been accentuated by the recent political instability. In this note, we present the most recent evidence on changes in Google consumer mobility data, since these are leading indicators of changes in household income, and use a previous econometric model linking mobility indices to survey-based household poverty to predict what may be happening to poverty in Myanmar in 2021.

Double Jeopardy: COVID-19, coup d'etat and poverty in Myanmar

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2022-06-28

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13:

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Myanmar experienced four distinct COVID shocks to its economy over 2020 to early 2022 as well as a military takeover in February 2021 that created severe political, civil and economic turmoil. COVID and the coup d’état reversed a decade of growth and poverty reduction, but the full extent of the crisis on household poverty has remained uncertain because of the challenges of conducting large-scale in-person welfare surveys during the pandemic and recent political instability. Here we combine ex ante simulation models with diverse phone survey evidence from mid-2020 to early 2022 to estimate the poverty impacts of these shocks and some of the mechanisms behind them. Both simulations and surveys are consistent in painting a grim picture of rising poverty, capital-depleting coping mechanisms, and the complete collapse of government-provided social protection.

Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Survey evidence from June 2020 to September 2021

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2021-12-23

Total Pages: 15

ISBN-13:

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Key Findings Nine rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and September 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. RUFSS interviews about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas. Key Findings ▪ Myanmar has experienced four distinct economic shocks since early 2020. The most recent of these shocks–the spread of the Delta variant–was devastating, with 63 percent of respondents stating that at least one household member had experienced COVID-like symptoms and almost all cases occurring in the May-September 2021 third wave. ▪ 16 percent of interviewed households moved townships between their first interview and September 2021. Around two-thirds of these were from the Yangon sample. ▪ Physical insecurity has emerged as a key impact of political instability, with 53 percent of responde

Assessing the Impacts of the COVID-19 Wage Supplement Scheme

Author: Glenn Abela

Publisher:

Published: 2022

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Microsimulation models have been particularly useful when dealing with the economic welfare impact of COVID-19, particularly since such models offer a way to obtain timely and policy-relevant information in the absence of detailed household-level survey data. This study uses EUROMOD, a static tax-benefit microsimulation model calibrated for Malta, to evaluate the microeconomic impact of the wage supplement scheme introduced in Malta in response to the COVID-19 pandemic for the year 2020. Results suggest that the wage supplement scheme had a number of positive effects. First, it dampened average income losses, both across the income distribution and within economic sectors irrespective of the extent to which these were impacted. In particular, the results show that the scheme's impact across the income spectrum was progressive in the sense that it shielded the lowest earners relatively more. Poverty rates are invariably lower under the wage supplement scenario, than under a scenario where the scheme is not enacted, whilst its impacts on income inequality are ambiguous. Importantly, the size of the shock suffered by the worst-hit households declines markedly in the presence of the scheme. Future work can benefit from the availability of household survey data to conduct a more thorough assessment of the impacts this study attempts to measure, and in so doing, serve as a validation tool against which simulation exercises such as this can be compared.

Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis

Author: Cathal O'Donoghue

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Given the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus, the State has had to respond rapidly and quite severely to flatten the curve and slow the spread of the virus. This has had significant implications for many aspects of life with differential impacts across the population. The lack of timely available data constrains the estimation of the scale and direction of recent changes in the income distribution, which in turn constrain policymakers seeking to monitor such developments. We overcome the lack of data by proposing a dynamic calibrated microsimulation approach to generate counterfactual income distributions as a function of more timely external data than is available in dated income surveys. We combine nowcasting methods using publicly available data and a household income generation model to perform the first calibrated simulation based upon actual data aiming to assess the distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis in Ireland. We extend the standard definition of disposable income by adjusting for work-related expenditure, housing costs and capital losses. We find that market incomes decreased along the distribution of disposable income, but decreases in euro terms were more pronounced at the top than at the bottom. Despite this, inequality in market incomes as measured by the Gini coefficient increased over the crisis. Once we account for the decline in housing and work-related expenses, households situated among the bottom 70% of the distribution actually improved their financial situation on average, whereas losses are recorded for the top 30%.