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Under the Weather

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2001-06-29

Total Pages: 161

ISBN-13: 0309072786

Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge. Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world? Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.

Flood Early Warning Systems

Author: Daniela Molinari

Publisher: WIT Press

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 197

ISBN-13: 1845646886

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Presenting the results of an ambitious research activity this book intends to understand why Early Warning Systems (EWSs) fail. However, from the beginning, the objective turned out to be challenging; first, because, so far, there is not a shared understanding of what an EWS is (among both researchers and practitioners communities); second, as a consequence, because it is equally unclear when an EWS can be considered successful or not. Due to this, the research needed first to face some “open questions” instead of going straight to the point under investigation. Specifically, it was first necessary to define EWS, identify its components and functions, peculiarities, and weak points. Only at that point, a first attempt to evaluate EWS performance was possible. Flood Early Warning Systems Performance is organised according to the conceptual steps required by the research. In part I the “open questions” about the definition and the role of EWSs are handled, the aim being the identification of how to evaluate their effectiveness/performance. Part II focuses on the real aim of the research, providing concepts and tools to assess EWS performance; suggested tools are also implemented in a case study to describe how they can be applied in practice. Focusing specifically on the topic of flood risk in mountainous regions, the book can be viewed as a sort of manual for EWS designers, managers, and users. It is organised into different independent sections which will appeal both to experts as well as those with an interest in the subject. Most of results can also be exported to other hazards.

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Author: Andrew Berg

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-03

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13:

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Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.

Preventive Measures

Author: John L. Davies

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers

Published: 1998-09-03

Total Pages: 301

ISBN-13: 1461641233

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State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine, and refugee flows are variants of a type of complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia, and Afghanistan. The international consequences of such crises are profound, often threatening regional security and requiring major inputs of humanitarian assistance. They also may pose long-term and costly challenges of rebuilding shattered governments and societies. A vital policy question is whether failures can be diagnosed far enough in advance to facilitate effective international efforts at prevention or peaceful transformation. This volume of original essays examines crisis early warning factors at different levels, in different settings, and judges their effectiveness according to various models. Top contributors offer answers along with analyses as they move from early warning to early response in their policy recommendations.

Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change

Author: Ashbindu Singh

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-05-12

Total Pages: 394

ISBN-13: 9401785988

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Around the world, extreme weather events are becoming increasingly "the new normal" and are expected to increase in the 21st century as a result of climate change. Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human lives and national economies. This book examines ways to protect people from hazards using early warning systems, and includes contributions from experts from four different continents representing 14 different universities, 8 government agencies and two UN agencies. Chapters detail critical components of early warning systems, ways to identify vulnerable communities, predict hazards and deliver information. Unique satellite images illustrate the transnational impact of disasters, while case studies provide detailed examples of warning systems. With contributors from the fields of economics, ethics, meteorology, geography and biology, this book is essential reading for anyone interested in disaster risk reduction or climate change.

Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction

Author: Jochen Zschau

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-11-11

Total Pages: 774

ISBN-13: 3642559034

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Written for a broad audience this book offers a comprehensive account of early warning systems for hydro meteorological disasters such as floods and storms, and for geological disasters such as earthquakes. One major theme is the increasingly important role in early warning systems played by the rapidly evolving fields of space and information technology. The authors, all experts in their respective fields, offer a comprehensive and in-depth insight into the current and future perspectives for early warning systems. The text is aimed at decision-makers in the political arena, scientists, engineers and those responsible for public communication and dissemination of warnings.

Early Warning Systems and Targeted Interventions for Student Success in Online Courses

Author: Glick, Danny

Publisher: IGI Global

Published: 2020-06-26

Total Pages: 374

ISBN-13: 1799850757

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Online learning has increasingly been viewed as a possible way to remove barriers associated with traditional face-to-face teaching, such as overcrowded classrooms and shortage of certified teachers. While online learning has been recognized as a possible approach to deliver more desirable learning outcomes, close to half of online students drop out as a result of student-related, course-related, and out-of-school-related factors (e.g., poor self-regulation; ineffective teacher-student, student-student, and platform-student interactions; low household income). Many educators have expressed concern over students who unexpectedly begin to struggle and appear to fall off track without apparent reason. A well-implemented early warning system, therefore, can help educators identify students at risk of dropping out and assign and monitor interventions to keep them on track for graduation. Despite the popularity of early warning systems, research on their design and implementation is sparse. Early Warning Systems and Targeted Interventions for Student Success in Online Courses is a cutting-edge research publication that examines current theoretical frameworks, research projects, and empirical studies related to the design, implementation, and evaluation of early warning systems and targeted interventions and discusses their implications for policy and practice. Moreover, this book will review common challenges of early warning systems and dashboard design and will explore design principles and data visualization tools to make data more understandable and, therefore, more actionable. Highlighting a range of topics such as curriculum design, game-based learning, and learning support, it is ideal for academicians, policymakers, administrators, researchers, education professionals, instructional designers, data analysts, and students.

Assessing Financial Vulnerability

Author: Morris Goldstein

Publisher: Peterson Institute

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 166

ISBN-13: 9780881322378

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This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.

Early Warning for Infectious Disease Outbreak

Author: Weizhong Yang

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2017-04-25

Total Pages: 390

ISBN-13: 0128124830

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Early Warning for Infectious Disease Outbreak: Theory and Practice is divided into three parts, with the first section introducing basic theory and key technologies of early warning and the basic principles of infectious disease surveillance. The second section introduces the technical details in the process of establishment, operation and usage of CIDARS and Pudong Syndromic Surveillance and the Early Warning System of the Shanghai World Expo. The third part explores the study of early warning technology, collecting some useful exploration in the fields of infectious diseases involving sentinel setting, data analysis, influence factors study, calculation and evaluation of early warning models. Provide insights into the theory and practice of early warning systems that have been evaluated and shown to be effective Presents a synopsis of current state-of-the-art practices and a starting point for the development and evaluation of new methods Covers applied research and complete case studies that focus on local, regional, national and international implementation Includes techniques from other fields, such as intelligence and engineering Explores future innovations in biosurveillance, including advances in analytical methods, modeling and simulation Addresses policy and organizational issues related to the construction of biosurveillance systems

Institutional Partnerships in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

Author: Maryam Golnaraghi

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-07-18

Total Pages: 255

ISBN-13: 3642253733

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This book documents seven examples of Early Warning Systems for hydrometeorological and other hazards that have proven effective in reducing losses due to these hazards. The cases studied encompass a variety of climatic regimes and stages of economic development, raging across the industrialized countries of Germany, France, Japan and the United States, to Bangladesh, the island nation of Cuba and the mega-city of Shanghai. Demonstrated characteristics of these exemplary cases are synthesized into ten guiding principles for successful early warning systems that will, it is hoped, prove useful to countries seeking to develop or strengthen such systems within their own borders.