Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market

Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market PDF

Author: Ding Ding

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-11-16

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1484324811

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China’s real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house prices rise further beyond “fundamental” levels and the bubble expands to smaller cities, it would increase the likelihood and costs of a sharp correction, which would weaken growth, undermine financial stability, reduce local government spending room, and spur capital outflows. Empirical analysis suggests that the increasing intensity of macroprudential policies tailored to local conditions is appropriate. The government should expand its toolkit to include additional macroprudential measures and push forward reforms to address the fundamental imbalances in the residential housing market.

The Chinese Real Estate Market

The Chinese Real Estate Market PDF

Author: Junjian Albert Cao

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-05-08

Total Pages: 407

ISBN-13: 1317934970

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This is the first book to fully present, analyse and interpret the Chinese real estate market. Dr Junjian Albert Cao examines the Chinese real estate market’s growth trajectory, unique governance and factors affecting values and investment in the context of reforms, rapid economic growth and urbanization. The book provides essential insights into the institutional change surrounding the development of the property market, government intervention at local and national levels, taxes and other regulatory charges, and factors such as market practices, economic changes, government policies and social changes that affect the value of real estate. Furthermore, the book analyses academic and policy debates on issues such as: commercial property investment housing price inflation property rights protection affordable and social housing market practices and regulation environment and sustainability taxation property-led growth and the reliance of local economic growth on the property sector The book offers a comprehensive, in-depth and up-to-date account of the Chinese property market and presents a full assessment of the investment potential of Chinese real estate. It is a must read for students, academics and real estate professionals interested in this fascinating real estate market that has implications for Chinese and the world economies.

The Residential Real Estate Market in China

The Residential Real Estate Market in China PDF

Author: Ding Ding

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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China's real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house prices rise further beyond “fundamental” levels and the bubble expands to smaller cities, it would increase the likelihood and costs of a sharp correction, which would weaken growth, undermine financial stability, reduce local government spending room, and spur capital outflows. Empirical analysis suggests that the increasing intensity of macro-prudential policies tailored to local conditions is appropriate. The government should expand its toolkit to include additional macro-prudential measures and push forward reforms to address the fundamental imbalances in the residential housing market.

Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market

Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market PDF

Author: Ding Ding

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-11-16

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1484329317

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China’s real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house prices rise further beyond “fundamental” levels and the bubble expands to smaller cities, it would increase the likelihood and costs of a sharp correction, which would weaken growth, undermine financial stability, reduce local government spending room, and spur capital outflows. Empirical analysis suggests that the increasing intensity of macroprudential policies tailored to local conditions is appropriate. The government should expand its toolkit to include additional macroprudential measures and push forward reforms to address the fundamental imbalances in the residential housing market.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015 PDF

Author: Martin Eichenbaum

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2016-06-22

Total Pages: 517

ISBN-13: 022639574X

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This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.

China's Housing Reform and Outcomes

China's Housing Reform and Outcomes PDF

Author: Joyce Yanyun Man

Publisher: Lincoln Inst of Land Policy

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 9781558442115

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This in-depth volume explains China's residential construction boom and reviews how some established trends are likely to challenge its housing market in coming years. It draws on household surveys and public data in China and provides important lessons about housing policy for China and other countries.

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market PDF

Author: Richard Koss

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-13

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1484348559

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The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market PDF

Author: Richard Koss

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-13

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1484351460

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The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

Understanding Residential Real Estate in China PDF

Author: MissMali Chivakul

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-04-28

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1484337255

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China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.

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