-PDF Download- Anticipating Balance Of Payments Crises The Role Of Early Warning Systems EBOOK

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems

Author: Mr.Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000-01-24

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 9781557758286

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.

The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

Author: Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000-09-11

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 9781557758842

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Author: Andrew Berg

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-03

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.

The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

Author: Andrew Berg

Publisher:

Published: 2000-01-01

Total Pages: 134

ISBN-13: 9781557759856

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes a look at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

Author: Ms.Chikako Oka

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-01-01

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1451843666

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.

The Political Economy of Emerging Markets

Author: J. Santiso

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2003-08-22

Total Pages: 268

ISBN-13: 1403973784

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This book takes a cross-disciplinary look at the financial markets of emerging markets in Latin America. The author wants to disassemble the black box that is the financial market: what are the motivations and interests of the various actors, both institutional and individual?; How do these interact with each other?; How does this information help us understand the Mexican crisis in the 90s and the current crisis in Argentina? The author has conducted extensive interviews with brokers, asset managers, economists, strategists, and analysts in the US, UK, Europe, and Latin America, providing significant material for this study.

The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-08-26

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1498336949

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.

Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice

Author: Management Association, Information Resources

Publisher: IGI Global

Published: 2017-12-01

Total Pages: 472

ISBN-13: 1522539336

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

In business, mistakes and errors will inevitably occur. As such, organizations must be constantly alert and ready to meet challenges head-on. Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice is a comprehensive reference source for the latest scholarly material on trends and techniques for the prediction and evaluation of financial risks and how to diminish their effect. Highlighting a range of pertinent topics such as project management, risk auditing and reporting, and resource management, this multi-volume book is ideally designed for researchers, academics, professionals, managers, students, and practitioners interested in risk and contingency management.

Elgar Encyclopedia of Financial Crises

Author: Sara Hsu

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2023-12-11

Total Pages: 509

ISBN-13: 1800377363

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Beginning with the 2008 global crisis in the United States, and particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic shook economies around the world, academics, practitioners, and other experts have become increasingly sensitised to the potential for financial and economic fragility to result in a systemic breakdown. Presenting a synopsis of lessons learnt from financial crises arising out of the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries, each entry examines a unique past issue to help to develop future outcomes, operating as a touchstone for further research.

Governance, Development and Conflict

Author: Manas Chatterji

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2011-08-17

Total Pages: 200

ISBN-13: 0857248960

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

A considerable amount of work has been conducted in the field of peace studies, conflict management, peace science in economics, sociology, anthropology and management. This title presents research with an emphasis on theoretical and mathematical constructs in the area of peace economics & peace science.