An analysis of crop choice : adapting to climate change in Latin American farms

An analysis of crop choice : adapting to climate change in Latin American farms PDF

Author: Niggol Seo

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published:

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13:

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Abstract: The authors explore how Latin American farmers adapt to climate by changing crops. They develop a multinomial choice model of farmer's choice of crops. Estimating the model across over 2,000 farmers in seven countries, they find that both temperature and precipitation affects the crops that Latin American farmers choose. Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations and wheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetter locations are more likely to grow rice, fruits, and squash, and in dryer locations maize and potatoes. Global warming will cause Latin American farmers to switch away from wheat and potatoes toward fruits and vegetables. Predictions of the impact of climate change must reflect not only changes in yields or net revenues per crop but also crop switching.

An Analysis of Crop Choice

An Analysis of Crop Choice PDF

Author: Niggol Seo

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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The authors explore how Latin American livestock farmers adapt to climate by switching species. They develop a multinomial choice model of farmer's choice of livestock species. Estimating the models across over 1,200 livestock farmers in seven countries, they find that both temperature and precipitation affect the species Latin American farmers choose. The authors then use this model to predict how future climate scenarios would affect species choice. Global warming will cause farmers to switch to beef cattle at the expense of dairy cattle.

Crop Selection

Crop Selection PDF

Author: Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13:

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Abstract: This paper examines whether the choice of crops is affected by climate in Africa. Using a multinomial logit model, the paper regresses crop choice on climate, soils, and other factors. The model is estimated using a sample of more than 7,000 farmers across 11 countries in Africa. The study finds that crop choice is very climate sensitive. For example, farmers select sorghum and maize-millet in the cooler regions of Africa; maize-beans, maize-groundnut, and maize in moderately warm regions' and cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, and millet-groundnut in hot regions. Further, farmers choose sorghum, and millet-groundnut when conditions are dry; cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, maize-millet, and maize when medium wet; and maize-beans and maize-groundnut when wet. As temperatures warm, farmers will shift toward more heat tolerant crops. Depending on whether precipitation increases or decreases, farmers will also shift toward drought tolerant or water loving crops, respectively. There are several policy relevant conclusions to draw from this study. First, farmers will adapt to climate change by switching crops. Second, global warming impact studies cannot assume crop choice is exogenous. Third, this study only examines choices across current crops. Future farmers may well have more choices. There is an important role for agronomic research in developing new varieties more suited for higher temperatures. Future farmers may have even better adaptation alternatives with an expanded set of crop choices specifically targeted at higher temperatures.

Understanding Options for Agricultural Production

Understanding Options for Agricultural Production PDF

Author: G.Y. Tsuji

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-03-14

Total Pages: 405

ISBN-13: 9401736243

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The first premise of this book is that farmers need access to options for improving their situation. In agricultural terms, these options might be manage ment alternatives or different crops to grow, that can stabilize or increase household income, that reduce soil degradation and dependence on off-farm inputs, or that exploit local market opportunities. Farmers need a facilitating environment, in which affordable credit is available if needed, in which policies are conducive to judicious management of natural resources, and in which costs and prices of production are stable. Another key ingredient of this facilitating environment is information: an understanding of which options are viable, how these operate at the farm level, and what their impact may be on the things that farmers perceive as being important. The second premise is that systems analysis and simulation have an impor tant role to play in fostering this understanding of options, traditional field experimentation being time-consuming and costly. This book summarizes the activities of the International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer (IBSNAT) project, an international initiative funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). IBSNAT was an attempt to demonstrate the effectiveness of understanding options through systems analysis and simulation for the ultimate benefit of farm households in the tropics and subtropics. The idea for the book was first suggested at one of the last IBSNAT group meetings held at the University of Hawaii in 1993.

Crop Selection and International Differences in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity

Crop Selection and International Differences in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity PDF

Author: Jorge Alvarez

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-08-16

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 1498326633

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A large share of cross-country differences in productivity is explained by differences in agricultural productivity. Using a combination of sub-national agricultural statistics and geospatial datasets on crop-specific potential yields, we study the main drivers of this variation from a macroeconomic perspective. We find that differences in geographically-induced crop-specific comparative advantages can explain a substantial share of the variation in yields across the world. Data reveal substantial gaps between potential and observed yields in most countries. When decomposing these within country gaps, we find that crop selection gaps are on average larger than those induced by input usage alone. The results highlight the importance of understanding the interaction of geography and crop selection drivers in assessing aggregate agricultural productivity differences.

The Analysis of Response in Crop and Livestock Production

The Analysis of Response in Crop and Livestock Production PDF

Author: John L. Dillon

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2012-12-02

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 0080983901

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The role of the agricultural scientist is to manipulate crop and livestock response phenomena so that they serve society's needs better, enabling countries to obtain full benefit from their agricultural resources. By producing food more efficiently, resources can be made available for non-agricultural development and other needs beyond the essentials of food and fibre. This text provides an introductory outline of the analytical principles involved in appraising the efficiency of crop-fertilizer and livestock-feed response. It provides students of both agricultural science and economics with a simple but formal exposition of the why, how and wherefore of the principles of crop and livestock analysis, thereby helping to further co-operative effort among biological and economic researchers. The third edition has been updated and revised, with additions relating to the principles of modelling, the concept of economic duality as pertinent to response processes, the appraisal of aggregate response, and the economics of response research.

Effect of Climate Change on Farmers' Choice of Crops

Effect of Climate Change on Farmers' Choice of Crops PDF

Author: Jolene Grisé

Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing

Published: 2014-03-17

Total Pages: 148

ISBN-13: 9783659269455

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Climate change is being observed through increased average temperatures world-wide, as well as through increased frequency of extreme events, such as floods and droughts. As climate is an uncontrollable yet essential input in the agriculture industry, the impact climate change may have on crop production in Saskatchewan is of importance. The main objective of this study is to investigate how farmers adapt to climate change by switching their crop mix, and how this crop mix may change under future climate change scenarios. A fractional multinomial logit (FMNL) model was used to assess how total area of cropland has changed over a thirty year time period. The panel data included variables to represent the land characteristics of Saskatchewan (i.e. the three major soil zones - Black, Dark Brown and Brown), climatic variables to represent average monthly temperature and precipitation, and price and policy variables in order to assess how average seeded area of each crop group changed. With these results, a simple simulation model was developed to evaluate how the area of each crop group would change under future climate scenarios.

Statistical Procedures for Agricultural Research

Statistical Procedures for Agricultural Research PDF

Author: Kwanchai A. Gomez

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 1984-02-17

Total Pages: 698

ISBN-13: 9780471870920

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Here in one easy-to-understand volume are the statistical procedures and techniques the agricultural researcher needs to know in order to design, implement, analyze, and interpret the results of most experiments with crops. Designed specifically for the non-statistician, this valuable guide focuses on the practical problems of the field researcher. Throughout, it emphasizes the use of statistics as a tool of research—one that will help pinpoint research problems and select remedial measures. Whenever possible, mathematical formulations and statistical jargon are avoided. Originally published by the International Rice Research Institute, this widely respected guide has been totally updated and much expanded in this Second Edition. It now features new chapters on the analysis of multi-observation data and experiments conducted over time and space. Also included is a chapter on experiments in farmers' fields, a subject of major concern in developing countries where agricultural research is commonly conducted outside experiment stations. Statistical Procedures for Agricultural Research, Second Edition will prove equally useful to students and professional researchers in all agricultural and biological disciplines. A wealth of examples of actual experiments help readers to choose the statistical method best suited for their needs, and enable even the most complicated procedures to be easily understood and directly applied. An International Rice Research Institute Book

HarvestChoice: Supporting strategic investment choices in agricultural technology development and adoption

HarvestChoice: Supporting strategic investment choices in agricultural technology development and adoption PDF

Author: Koo, Jawoo

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-07-13

Total Pages: 12

ISBN-13:

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HarvestChoice began in 2006, when detailed and readily accessible data on agriculture, human welfare, and the environment were scarce for Africa South of the Sahara (SSA). Statistics to support agricultural policy and investment decisions in the region were often too coarse—available only at national scale. Since then, technology advances (e.g., remote sensing, geographic information systems, and modeling tools) have enabled rapid data generation.