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Adjustment Uncertainty, Confidence, and Growth

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1989-12-28

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1451947356

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2000-07-31

Total Pages: 104

ISBN-13: 0309171822

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This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.

Trade Liberalization, Stabilization, and Growth

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-01-01

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1451923562

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While inflation slowed sharply in Mexico during 1988, imports surged. Although the growth of domestic absorption could be attributed to a higher fiscal deficit, deriving from sharply higher domestic interest rates, this paper argues that the recovery of private investment was the main driving force, as the private sector saved most of its interest income on public debt. The paper also analyzes some of the costs and benefits associated with trade liberalization. While there is no evidence yet that trade liberalization contributed decisively to price stabilization, it may have played an important role in stimulating exports and investment.

The New Europe: Evolving Economic and Financial Systems in East and West

Author: D.E. Fair

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 430

ISBN-13: 9401117411

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The papers collected in this volume are those presented at the seventeenth Collo quium arranged by the Societe Universitaire Europeenne de Recherches Financieres (SUERF), which took place in Berlin in October 1992. The Society is supported by a large number of central banks and commercial banks, by other fmancial and business institutions and by personal subscriptions from academics and others interested in monetary and fmancial problems. Since its establishment in 1963, it has developed as a forum for the exchange of information, research results and ideas among academics and practitioners in these fields, including central bank officials and civil servants responsible for formulating and applying monetary and financial policies, national and international. A major activity of SUERF is to organise and conduct Colloquia on subjects of topical interest to its members. The titles, places and dates of previous Colloqu~ for which volumes of the collected papers were published are noted on the last page of this volume.

World Economic Outlook, October 1990

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-01-01

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13: 1451944470

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This paper highlights that after several years of rapid expansion that brought many countries to historically high levels of resource utilization, the growth of the world economy is projected to slow to about 2 percent in 1990 from 3 percent in 1989. The global slowdown would reflect a moderation of growth in both industrial and developing countries and a contraction of output in Eastern Europe and in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In 1991, the expansion in world output is expected to pick up to 21⁄2 percent, reflecting stronger growth in developing countries.

Externalities. Incentives, and Economic Reforms

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-01-01

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1451926472

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The paper emphasizes the role of institutions and incentives in the presence of externalities. An economy with multiple public decision makers is likely to experience “overspending,” “undertaxing,” “overborrowing,” and “overinflation” unless effective institutions exist for overcoming coordination failure. External financing may weaken incentives for adjustment over the longer run unless assistance is made conditional on fundamental institutional reforms. The paper also analyzes reforms that strengthen incentives to provide effort. Uncertainty regarding future taxes reduces present effort and the responsiveness of output to market signals. In addition, the paper addresses the adverse effects of bank insurance and soft budget constraints.

Flight Capital as a Portfolio Choice

Author: Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-12-01

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1451858485

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This paper sets flight capital in the context of portfolio choice, focusing upon the proportion of private wealth that is held abroad. There are large regional differences in this proportion, ranging from 5 percent in South Asia to 40 percent in Africa. We explain cross-country differences in portfolio choice by variables that proxy differences in the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. We apply the results to four policy questions: how the East Asian crisis affected domestic capital outflows; herd effects; the effect of the IMF-World Bank debt relief initiative for heavily-indebted poor countries (HIPC) on capital repatriation; and why so much of Africa’s private wealth is held outside the continent.

Policy Inconsistency and External Debt Service

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-04-01

Total Pages: 16

ISBN-13: 1451978324

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In this paper it is argued that the willingness of debtors to make external debt-service payments reflects, in part, their inability to credibly and permanently suspend debt service. The benefits of a credible debt-service suspension would include increased private investment. But this would, in turn, tend to create conditions in which it would then be optimal for the government to resume payments. Thus, debt remains a threat even after the announcement of suspension of debt service. It follows that the expected benefits of such a suspension are limited and may be offset by penalties imposed by creditors.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 37 No. 1

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-01-01

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13: 145195686X

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This paper examines factors affecting saving, policy tools, and tax reform. The literature on factors affecting saving and capital formation in industrialized countries is reviewed, and measurement problems are examined. The effect on the saving rate of real rates of return, income redistribution, allocation of saving between corporations and individuals, growth of public and private pension plans, tax incentives, the bequest motive, energy prices, and inflation is considered. The limited tools available to policymakers to affect savings are discussed.

Striving for Growth After Adjustment

Author: Luis Serven

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 1993

Total Pages: 304

ISBN-13: 9780821324844

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This book presents the results of about three years of work finished in early 1992 in the area of private investment and macroeconomic adjustment. Its purpose is to explore the macroeconomic determinants of investment and the causes and cures for the gap between maroeconomic adjustment and stabilization and the resumption of economic growth in developing countries, a gap that even today - 10 years after the debt crisis and the subsequent adjustment of the eighties - remains wide. This volume highlights the central role of capital formation (public and private) in the restoration of sustainable growth.