A Medium-Scale DSGE Model for the Integrated Policy Framework

A Medium-Scale DSGE Model for the Integrated Policy Framework PDF

Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-01-28

Total Pages: 99

ISBN-13: 1616359706

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.

The Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model: A Structural Framework for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Armenia

The Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model: A Structural Framework for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Armenia PDF

Author: Victoria Babajanyan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-06-10

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

This paper presents an overview of the Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model (AFSM), which is a structural, New-Keynesian, DSGE, small open economy model with a rich fiscal block that includes several expenditure and revenue instruments, and types of debt. The AFSM is now a formal part of the Ministry of Finance analytical toolkit to do macroeconomic fiscal policy scenario analysis, which feeds into policy discussions, budget planning, and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework. The model was applied to assses the macroeconomic impact of the “first wave” of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Armenian economy, including the mitigating effects of policy responses. AFSM simulations revealed a potential severe impact in 2020, with declines in GDP and consumption of 12.9 and 11.7 percent, respectively, and a cumulative loss of GDP of 38 percent for the period 2020-2023. They also highlighted a significant fiscal outlook deterioration that would increase public debt-to-GDP ratios by 18.8 percentage points over 2020-23. The package of counter-cyclical fiscal measures of 3.6 percent of GDP, however, was estimated to cushion the 2020 GDP decline by almost 2 percentage points, as well as protect jobs. A second AFSM application related to the 2018 public investment under-execution showed the importance of improving the efficiency of public investment to have positive macroeconomic and fiscal effects.

Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies PDF

Author: Mr. Zamid Aligishiev

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-09-12

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio mainly through higher fiscal revenues and lower borrowing costs. These effects are larger in countries with greater tax efficiency, lower informality, and higher initial debt. Moreover, a model-based analysis elaborates on how such fiscal gains can be enhanced when revenue windfalls associated with reforms are saved or channeled through higher public investment.

Toward an Integrated Policy Framework

Toward an Integrated Policy Framework PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2020-10-08

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 9781513558769

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-10-23

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 1498344062

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Examining Price-Wage Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Uruguay

Examining Price-Wage Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Uruguay PDF

Author: Mr. Pau Rabanal

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-05-24

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The recent increase of inflation globally has led to a renewed interest in understanding the link between inflation and wages. In Uruguay, the presence of centralized wage bargaining and indexation practices raises the question as to what extent wage growth dynamics can make the response of inflation to shocks more persistent. We use a medium-scale DSGE model which incorporates indexation in the wage setting equation to analyze the interactions between wage setting behavior and other macroeconomic variables, as well as the role of monetary policy. The analysis suggests that wage indexation increases the persistence of the response of inflation to domestic and foreign shocks, it also affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the severity of the trade-offs faced by the central bank.

Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper

Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-10-06

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13: 1498341713

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

The countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) was proposed by the Basel committee to increase the resilience of the banking sector to negative shocks. The interactions between banking sector losses and the real economy highlight the importance of building a capital buffer in periods when systemic risks are rising. Basel III introduces a framework for a time-varying capital buffer on top of the minimum capital requirement and another time-invariant buffer (the conservation buffer). The CCB aims to make banks more resilient against imbalances in credit markets and thereby enhance medium-term prospects of the economy—in good times when system-wide risks are growing, the regulators could impose the CCB which would help the banks to withstand losses in bad times.

Lanterna Rally - Theme by Grace Themes