A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia PDF

Author: Fakhri J. Hasanov

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-01-01

Total Pages: 176

ISBN-13: 3031122755

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This Open Access Brief presents the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). KGEMM is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The model has eight blocks (real sector, fiscal, monetary, external sector, price, labor and wages, energy, population, and age cohorts) that interact with each other to represent the Kingdom’s macroeconomy and energy linkages. It captures New Keynesian demand-side features anchored to medium-run equilibrium and long-run aggregate supply. It applies a cointegration and equilibrium correction modeling (ECM) methodology to time series data to estimate the model’s behavioral equations in the framework of Autometrics, a general-to-specific econometric modeling strategy. Hence, the model combines ‘theory-driven’ approach with ‘data-driven’ approach. The Brief begins with an introduction to the theoretical framework of the model and the KGEMM methodology and then walks the reader through the structure of the model and its behavioral equations. The book closes with simulations showing the application of the model. Providing a detailed introduction to a cutting-edge, robust predictive model, this Brief will be of great use to researchers and policymakers interested in macroeconomics, energy economics, econometrics, and more specifically, the economy of Saudi Arabia.

An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia

An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia PDF

Author: Mr.Ken Miyajima

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-02-12

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13: 1498331270

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Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant.

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK PDF

Author: Samya Beidas-Strom

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-10-11

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 151351718X

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We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models

Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models PDF

Author: Ray C. Fair

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Published: 1984

Total Pages: 504

ISBN-13: 9780674831803

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This book gives a practical, applications-oriented account of the latest techniques for estimating and analyzing large, nonlinear macroeconomic models. Ray Fair demonstrates the application of these techniques in a detailed presentation of several actual models, including his United States model, his multicountry model, Sargent's classical macroeconomic model, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models, and a small (twelve equation) linear structural model. He devotes a good deal of attention to the difficult and often neglected problem of moving from theoretical to econometric models. In addition, he provides an extensive discussion of optimal control techniques and methods for estimating and analyzing rational expectations models. A computer program that handles all the techniques in the book is available from the author, making it possible to use the techniques with little additional programming. The book presents the logic of this program. A smaller program for personal microcomputers for analysis of Fair's United States model is available from Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Anyone wanting to learn how to use large macroeconomic models, including researchers, graduate students, economic forecasters, and people in business and government both in the United States and abroad, will find this an essential guidebook.

Coronavirus Outbreak and the Great Lockdown

Coronavirus Outbreak and the Great Lockdown PDF

Author: Bhaskar Bagchi

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-09-21

Total Pages: 126

ISBN-13: 981157782X

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This book captures the dynamic relationship between COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil prices and major stock indices as well as the crude oil prices and stock market volatility that have been caused due to outbreak of this pandemic. The pandemic has changed the world melodramatically and major world markets collapsed in the beginning, affecting major industries in an unprecedented way. The book will be useful to the researcher in the field of finance and economics, and policy makers both at government and private level, keeping in view the present state of economy throughout the world.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia PDF

Author: Mr.Ahmed Al-Darwish

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-03-17

Total Pages: 94

ISBN-13: 1498327923

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Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Strong Growth

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia PDF

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-09-09

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1513513494

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This Selected Issues paper explores policies to drive diversification for Saudi Arabia. Diversification is needed to create jobs for Saudis and to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in oil markets. Although the business climate should be improved, and remaining infrastructure gaps addressed, reforms need to go beyond these areas. Diversification in Saudi Arabia that creates jobs for nationals could be held back by the effects of relatively high wages and their impact on cost competitiveness. Creative solutions are needed to address the impact of high government wages and employment on competitiveness. Industrial policy could help overcome the incentives that encourage companies to focus on the nontradable sector, but should be handled carefully, keeping lessons from other countries’ experiences in mind. Export orientation and competition are crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Strengthening human capital to raise productivity and provide workers with the skills needed in the private sector will be essential to success.

The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling

The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling PDF

Author: Gunnar Bårdsen

Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 361

ISBN-13: 0199246491

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This work describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting new insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.

Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory

Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory PDF

Author: George T. McCandless

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Published: 1991

Total Pages: 392

ISBN-13: 9780674461116

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Economies are constantly in flux, and economists have long sought reliable means of analyzing their dynamic properties. This book provides a succinct and accessible exposition of modern dynamic (or intertemporal) macroeconomics. The authors use a microeconomics-based general equilibrium framework, specifically the overlapping generations model, which assumes that in every period there are two generations which overlap. This model allows the authors to fully describe economies over time and to employ traditional welfare analysis to judge the effects of various policies. By choosing to keep the mathematical level simple and to use the same modeling framework throughout, the authors are able to address many subtle economic issues. They analyze savings, social security systems, the determination of interest rates and asset prices for different types of assets, Ricardian equivalence, business cycles, chaos theory, investment, growth, and a variety of monetary phenomena. Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory will become a classic of economic exposition and a standard teaching and reference tool for intertemporal macroeconomics and the overlapping generations model. The writing is exceptionally clear. Each result is illustrated with analytical derivations, graphically, and by worked out examples. Exercises, which are strategically placed, are an integral part of the book.

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK PDF

Author: Samya Beidas-Strom

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-10-11

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 1498320503

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We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

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