20% Chance of Rain

20% Chance of Rain PDF

Author: Richard B. Jones

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2011-11-01

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 0470592419

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There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.

20% Chance of Rain

20% Chance of Rain PDF

Author: Richard B. Jones

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2011-10-11

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 1118116364

DOWNLOAD EBOOK →

There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.

Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast PDF

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2006-10-09

Total Pages: 124

ISBN-13: 0309180538

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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

See Ya Later Calculator

See Ya Later Calculator PDF

Author: Editors of Portable Press

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2017-06-01

Total Pages: 211

ISBN-13: 1626868123

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The math book for anyone who thinks they hate math, full of easy, entertaining and practical tricks for mentally solving problems in seconds. No matter how much you might try to avoid numbers, we all use math every day to calculate a tip, figure out an interest rate, or estimate the cost of the groceries in your cart. But the good news is, math can be easy—and even fun—if you know how to do it all in your head. With these simple and downright magical math tricks, you can do everyday math faster than it takes to dig out your phone and find the calculator app. Step-by-step and easy-to-memorize directions show more than 125 math operations anyone can do in their head. Plus, it features do-it-yourself math projects, puzzles, and a bonus section for advanced mathophiles. Get ready to tackle problems such as . . . • How to easily square any number • How to add three-digit numbers • How to use a mirror to measure the height of a building • How to make a ruler out of a dollar bill • How to use geometry to paint walls, cut floor tiling, and do other home renovations • How to subtract numbers . . . by adding And lots more . . . No calculator required.

Understanding Ignorance

Understanding Ignorance PDF

Author: Daniel R. Denicola

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2018-09-04

Total Pages: 263

ISBN-13: 026253603X

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An exploration of what we can know about what we don't know: why ignorance is more than simply a lack of knowledge. Ignorance is trending. Politicians boast, “I'm not a scientist.” Angry citizens object to a proposed state motto because it is in Latin, and “This is America, not Mexico or Latin America.” Lack of experience, not expertise, becomes a credential. Fake news and repeated falsehoods are accepted and shape firm belief. Ignorance about American government and history is so alarming that the ideal of an informed citizenry now seems quaint. Conspiracy theories and false knowledge thrive. This may be the Information Age, but we do not seem to be well informed. In this book, philosopher Daniel DeNicola explores ignorance—its abundance, its endurance, and its consequences. DeNicola aims to understand ignorance, which seems at first paradoxical. How can the unknown become known—and still be unknown? But he argues that ignorance is more than a lack or a void, and that it has dynamic and complex interactions with knowledge. Taking a broadly philosophical approach, DeNicola examines many forms of ignorance, using the metaphors of ignorance as place, boundary, limit, and horizon. He treats willful ignorance and describes the culture in which ignorance becomes an ideological stance. He discusses the ethics of ignorance, including the right not to know, considers the supposed virtues of ignorance, and concludes that there are situations in which ignorance is morally good. Ignorance is neither pure nor simple. It is both an accusation and a defense (“You are ignorant!” “Yes, but I didn't know!”). Its practical effects range from the inconsequential to the momentous. It is a scourge, but, DeNicola argues daringly, it may also be a refuge, a value, even an accompaniment to virtue.

The Probability Lifesaver

The Probability Lifesaver PDF

Author: Steven J. Miller

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2017-05-16

Total Pages: 752

ISBN-13: 1400885388

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The essential lifesaver for students who want to master probability For students learning probability, its numerous applications, techniques, and methods can seem intimidating and overwhelming. That's where The Probability Lifesaver steps in. Designed to serve as a complete stand-alone introduction to the subject or as a supplement for a course, this accessible and user-friendly study guide helps students comfortably navigate probability's terrain and achieve positive results. The Probability Lifesaver is based on a successful course that Steven Miller has taught at Brown University, Mount Holyoke College, and Williams College. With a relaxed and informal style, Miller presents the math with thorough reviews of prerequisite materials, worked-out problems of varying difficulty, and proofs. He explores a topic first to build intuition, and only after that does he dive into technical details. Coverage of topics is comprehensive, and materials are repeated for reinforcement—both in the guide and on the book's website. An appendix goes over proof techniques, and video lectures of the course are available online. Students using this book should have some familiarity with algebra and precalculus. The Probability Lifesaver not only enables students to survive probability but also to achieve mastery of the subject for use in future courses. A helpful introduction to probability or a perfect supplement for a course Numerous worked-out examples Lectures based on the chapters are available free online Intuition of problems emphasized first, then technical proofs given Appendixes review proof techniques Relaxed, conversational approach

Weather For Dummies

Weather For Dummies PDF

Author: John D. Cox

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2020-12-22

Total Pages: 384

ISBN-13: 1119806798

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"Weather For Dummies is probably the best book written for a general audience about the subject." ―BILL GATES Find out what's really going on when it seems like the sky is falling with Weather For Dummies What exactly is happening when the wind blows, the clouds roll in, lightning flashes, and rain pours down? How do hurricanes whip into a frenzy, and where do tornadoes come from? Why do seasonal conditions sometimes vary so much from one year to the next? The inner workings of the weather can be a mystery, but Dummies can help. Packed with dozens of maps, charts, and stunning photographs of weather conditions, Weather For Dummies brings the science of meteorology down to earth, covering everything from weather basics to cloud types, seasonal differences, extreme weather events, climate change, and beyond. You'll learn how to: Predict the weather and prepare a forecast Use common weather terminology like a pro Identify different types of clouds Spot weather conditions that can lead to storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, and monsoons Observe fun weather phenomena like lightning, rainbows, sundogs, and haloes Talk about what impact weather has on the global ecosystem Get a handle on smog, the greenhouse effect, global warming, and other climate issues Featuring clear explanations and fun and easy activities you can do at home, you'll be ready – rain or shine – for the ever-changing skies above with Weather For Dummies.

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